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Tuesday August 24, 2010 - 11:11:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 24,
Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders
The Core Durable
measures the change in the total value of new
orders for durable
Because aircraft orders are very volatile,
number gives a better
gauge of orders trends.
activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading
taken as positive/bullish for the
USD, while a lower than expected
should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. The analysts predict
future reading of 0.50%.
Euro dropped after breaking the support we specified in yesterday's
1.2680, dropping almost 70 pips, and stopping only a few steps before
our target at 1.2604 (the low at the moment of preparing this report
1.2617). With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332,
size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored.
suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. But,
moment, we have not reached but only the first Fibonacci
for the 5-wave move at 1.2775. Therefore, in spite of the size
we highly doubt that it has shown all its cards. We believe
capable of reaching Fibonacci 50% at least, or even go lower than
what increases the risk in these areas, is that after such a
Euro is subject to a correction at any time, and from any level.
support is not at the important Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, but
1.2630. If broken, we will drop to the exciting 1.2550, then the
important 1.2432. On the Other hand, resistance is at 1.2750,
cannot go on achieving the kind of gains we have seen after
low, unless we break the resistance 1.2750. In case we get
will be heading to 1.2829 & 1.2891.
1.2630: the rising trend line from Asian session low on intraday charts.
1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to
* 1.2750: the falling trend line
6th high on the intraday chart.
* 1.2829: Aug 12th low.
Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high
speculators are insisting on pushing the Japanese government
Although the Dollar/Yen traded in a very dull range of just 49
yesterday, it was pushed by speculators below the 85 landmark again.
the Euro, the Yen hit a 9 year high for the Yen, 9 year low for the
107.19. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed
lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a
exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is
currently at 85.66. Therefore, all of our attention is at the
line & the importance it provides. As long as we
trading below this
line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break
resistance 85.66 we will
shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70.
support is provided by the
Asian session low at 84.84. If broken,
be nothing stopping the
price from reaching our awaited target 83.87,
for the BoJ. And if the
"Japs" keep quiet, we could see
* 84.84: Asian session low.
Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining
monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly
* 85.66: the falling trend line from
4th top on the hourly chart.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low.
June 26th top.
trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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