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Tuesday August 24, 2010 - 15:35:00 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Tuesday, August 24, 2010 11:30:47 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -87 S&P -10 NASDAQ -24

***Economic data***
- (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Consumer Confidence: 120.8 v 120 prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Aug 21st: -0.4% w/w; +2.3% y/y
- (PD) Poland Central Bank leaves Base Rate at 3.50% ; as expected
- (CA) Canada Jun Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: -0.5% v 0.1%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Aug 21st: +2.6% y/y; MTD: +1.0% v July
- (BE) Belgium Aug Business Confidence: -5.1 v -6.0e
- (BR) Brazil July Total Outstanding Loans (BRL) 1.55T v 1.53T prior; Private Banks Lending: 891M v 879M prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: 1.2% v 2.0% prior
- (US) July Existing Home Sales: 3.83M v 4.65Me
- (US) Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing: 11 v 8e
- (MX) Mexico July Preliminary Trade Balance: -$1.0B v -$730.0Me

***Fixed Income***
- (EU) ECB drained €60.5B in 7-day Term deposit Tender; as expected
- (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-month refi tender at fixed 1.0%

- Markets are tense this morning in the wake of equity declines in Asia and more grim US housing data. With the yen pushing out to 15-year highs against the greenback, the Nikkei dipped below 9000 for the first time in 15 months. Ahead of the NY open money was flowing from equities to government bonds on both sides of the
Atlantic. Estimates for the 10:00am July existing homes data showed that the Street expected another leg down in home sales. July existing home sales were much weaker than expected, with total supply pushing out to a record 12.5 months. The DJIA tested below 10K in the wake of the data. Fed Governor Evans said that he sees encouraging signs of economic recovery in the US, even though housing is not out of the woods yet. There were some bearish comments from leading US analysts before the open. Morgan Stanley's Steven Roach warned that the US is more like Japan than we want to admit, while Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said substantial downward GDP revisions for the US would arrive soon, but said the odds of the economy returning to "technical recession" are low. Regardless of all the bearish sentiment stocks appear to have put in a floor following the pitiful housing figures. Treasury yields have also come off their lowest levels but remain well supported by flight to safety bids. The 10-year yield is just a few basis points above 2.5%, levels not seen since March of 2009. The German 10-year bund yield has made fresh lifetime lows below 2.2% while the 10-year Gilt is under 2.9%. December gold is just shy of two-month highs around $1,233, while crude is push out to three-month lows briefly below $72.

- Big Lots was a bit ahead of the consensus view in its Q2 report and also nudged its FY10 guidance a bit higher, although its guidance for next quarter was a good deal weaker than expected. BIG is down 3% or so. Burger King's Q4 revenue was a hair less than expected while profits met expectations. The company continues to see sales under pressure from labor market weakness. BKC is up 1%. Quarterly losses at Barnes and Noble were steeper than expected in the company's Q1, and the firm said losses would continue next quarter and for the full year. BKS is well off its worst levels, at -2%. Medical device maker Medtronic came in a bit behind analysts' expectations in its Q1 report and trimmed its 2011 outlook somewhat. Medtronic's CEO said the company is seeing a slowdown in its largest markets.

- The yen continues to hit fresh multi-year highs against the USD and euro with 83.60 and 105.40 tested respectively ahead of the July existing home sales data. EUR/CHF almost took out its life-time lows of 1.3071 aided by chatter that the SNB was off-loading more of its Euros accumulated during its year-long intervention binge. However, EUR/USD staged a sharp reversal after the existing homes data. EUR/USD is back above 1.27 and in positive territory compared to its
Tokyo open after testing 1.2588 ahead of the key US data. EUR/JPY rallied by over 100 pips from nine-year lows.

***Looking Ahead***
12:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Murray
13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell $37B in 2-Year Notes
15:00 (AR) Argentina July Trade Balance: $1.3Be v $1.3B prior
17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 22nd: -46e v -45 prior



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