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Tuesday August 24, 2010 - 20:53:34 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Wednesday 25 August 2010


News and views


Risk assets sold. Equity markets around the globe, China excepted,

were lower on economic growth concerns, although there was no

single catalyst to attribute the move to. The Eurostoxx50 index closed

down 1.7%, and the S&P500 is currently 1.2% lower after sliding (via

futures) from the Asian session onwards. A weak existing home sales

report (the 27% plunge was a record) during the NY morning created a

climax to the selling. The CRB commodities index gapped 1.3% lower,

oil -2.1% and closing in on the May low, and copper -1.8%. Gold and

silver made outside days. US 3mth Libor fell 1bp to 0.308%, closing in

on the 0.25% Dec-09 low. US treasuries caught another safe-haven

bid, shedding 13bp to 2.47%, a 17 month low. The 2yr note auction

was solid. Greek government bonds continued to reflect deteriorating

fundamentals, the 10yr gaining 12bp in yield to 11.03%, a fresh post-

May high.


The US dollar index firmed with risk aversion until the shocking home

sales data pushed it back to unchanged on the day. The dollar, it

seems, flips identities when news is extremely surprising. EUR did the

reverse, declining from the 1.2660 Asian high to 1.2590, the data

boosting it to 1.2720, before it finally settled around 1.2680.

Outperformer yen firmed from 85.00 to 83.60 vs the dollar, last seen in

1995, and sure to excite intervention chatter. AUD followed the EUR

lower to a 0.8797 intraday low, rebounding to 0.8874 after the US data.

NZD fell to 0.7007 before the rebound took it to 0.7080. AUD/NZD

declined with risk aversion from 1.2600 to 1.2522.


US existing home sales plunge 27.2% in July, to be down just over a

third on April, when the tax credit for home-buyers expired. The fall is

not a complete surprise because pending home sales fell 31% in May-

June but we had thought it would be spread over a few more months

given a late extension to the tax credit which meant sale completions

prior to September would still qualify. All 4 major regions recorded

declines of 22% to 35% last month. The slump in housing completions

early in Q3 will hit retail sales of household goods, production of DIY

materials, and so. The pull-forward of housing activity from H2 2010

into 2009 and earlier this year, plus the constrained spending power of

recent homebuyers who now have a mortgage, are additional factors

that could tip the economy back into a mild recession about now


US Richmond Fed factory index down from 16 to 11 in Aug. Not

quite as steep a fall as some of the other regionals, but a similar

message. The US factory sector is slowing or even contracting in some

regions now that fiscal support for the economy is being withdrawn and

inventory rebuilding is waning.


Canadian retail sales up 0.1% in June, lacklustre after a steep sales

fall in April-May. Auto sales rose 2.1% but ex auto fell 0.5% (ex autos

and gas down 0.1%).


Euroland industrial orders up 2.5% in June, their fourth solid gain in

five months. Orders were up 23% over the year, from a low base of

course but largely export driven, benefitting from stronger global

economic activity and the depreciating euro last quarter.


UK mortgage approvals down in July. BBA data covering about

70% of the market showed 33.7k mortgages issued, the second

slowest month for the year so far.




AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: The currencies look

heavy, and should break below major support levels during the next

few sessions, in AUD’s case 0.8800, while for the NZD it’s 0.7000.


.Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 13 August 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




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