Pound Weakens; Investors Cite Worries over Austerity Measures
This morning the GBP USD continued its downtrend by breaking
a minor .618 retracement level at 1.5457. Buyers stepped in to rally the Sterling, but the buying
power wasnâ€™t strong enough to post a daily closing price reversal bottom. At
the midsession, the British Pound found resistance on a downtrending Gann angle
from the 1.5997 top at 1.5757. The subsequent selling pressure and the close
below the Fib level indicates lower markets to follow. The charts indicate the
market is set-up for a potential freefall to a major 50% level at 1.5113.
The catalyst behind the weakness in the Sterling remains growing concern that the
newly implemented austerity measures and tax hikes will curtail the current economic
After sitting inside of a range for six days while waiting
for a decision from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan regarding a
possible intervention, the USD JPY finally broke to a new low for the year on
Tuesday. Volatility which had been compressed while the market remained inside
the range, expanded.
Traders ignored strong words from Japanese Finance Minister
Yoshihiko Noda sending a signal that they believe the Japanese government and
the Bank of Japan were not ready to back up those words with direct market
Noda said at a new conference that the recent moves in the
Japanese Yen are clearly one-sided and that disorderly moves can be harmful to
economic stability. In the recent past traders would have responded to this
â€śverbal interventionâ€ť by covering short Dollar/Yen positions, but this time,
having heard this language before, decided to ignore the comments and react to
growing global demand for safer lower-yielding assets instead.
This morning the markets reacted as if it was business as
usual. Investors shed risky assets and placed the proceeds into the lower
yielding Japanese Yen for safe-keeping. This drove the Yen higher. There
doesnâ€™t seem to be any disruptive trading or overt speculation at this time. This
is probably frustrating to Japanese officials who seem to believe that there is
disorder in the markets.
While it may be true that the high priced Yen can have a
detrimental effect on the economy, nothing is going to stop the decline if
investor sentiment is triggering a shift out of risky assets.
has not intervened in the currency markets since 2004. At that time it sold 35
trillion Yen in 15 months through March 2004. The markets today are a little
more sophisticated. Institutions and hedge funds have the power to combat a
central bankâ€™s intervention which is probably why Japanese officials are
hesitant at this time to make such a move.
intervenes and the market absorbs the great influx of Yen supply then the
action will have no long-term effect on valuation and only serve to put more
Yen into the open market.
Another reason why a successful intervention is not likely
at this time is that in order to work, an intervention has to have the
cooperation of other central banks. With all nations seemingly battling
economic woes of their own, this cooperation doesnâ€™t seem forthcoming at this
Technically, the USD JPY main trend is down. The trend will
change to up on a move through 85.91, but this seems unlikely at this time
since the old bottoms at 84.73 and 84.89 are likely to become new resistance
and limit gains.
The AUD USD closed lower. Traders dumped risky assets this
morning as the outlook for the global economy worsened. Traders are also
worried about the outcome of last weekendâ€™s election. The longer the hung
parliament situation lingers, the more confidence investors lose. Investors
want the election settled so that stability can return to the country. At this
time questions have to be answered regarding the taxing of mining companies.
The newly proposed taxes will have a direct effect on Australian exports. Downside momentum could drive this market into
an uptrending 50% Gann angle at .87.17.
The Euro finished higher after testing a major 50% level early
in the trading session. Technically the market is trading inside of the 1.1876
to 1.3334 range. The mid-point of this range is 1.2605, the Fibonacci
retracement price is 1.2433.
This morning the market tested 1.2605 and penetrated it
slightly before regaining it slightly after the U.S. opening. At the mid-session,
the EUR USD was trading higher and by the close, posted a daily closing price
reversal. This pattern often leads to the start of a 2 to 3 day rally.
All is not rosy however for the Euro. If sellers continue to
exert pressure and 1.2605 fails to hold on the next retest, then look for the
market to continue to decline to 1.2433.
Trading could be light and tight on Wednesday, one day ahead
of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernankeâ€™s speech before central bankers at the
conference at Jackson Hole,
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.