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Wednesday August 25, 2010 - 11:22:37 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 25/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 25,
The Euro broke the support we specified in yesterdayâ€™s
report 1.2630, dropping modestly to 1.2586, and stopping clearly before meeting
our target at 1.2550. With this new extension to the medium term drop from
1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last
week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. And as we
reach Fibonacci 50% for this massive move at 1.2604, we should not neglect the
possibility that the correction might me over after reaching such an important
target. Short term support is at 1.2627, and we believe a break here will
indicate that the drop is far from over, and that the Euro will sink below
yesterdayâ€™s low. In this case the suggested targets will be the same as
yesterday: 1.2550 first, then the all important 1.2432. On the other hand,
yesterdayâ€™s trading proved the importance of Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from
1.2990. This resistance is at 1.2714, and will be our resistance of the day. If
broken, the Euro will jump to other important Fibonacci levels at 1.2792 &
â€˘ 1.2627: Asian session low.
â€˘ 1.2550: the
support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows.
â€˘ 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8%
for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2920.
â€˘ 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
drop from 1.2920.
â€˘ 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the
3-month high of 1.3332.
the Dollar/Yen dropped in the fashion we have been waiting for, and with the
strength that we missed! The price broke yesterdayâ€™s report, and dived to a new
15-year low to successfully reach our suggested target at 83.87. In the attached
chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top.
Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but
there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec
08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a
perfect target for this dropping wave, which we expected, from the very
beginning, that it will dive below 84.81. Letâ€™s leave the daily & weekly
charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We
can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top.
This line is running currently at 85.45. Therefore, all of our attention is at
the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are
trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the
resistance 85.45 we will shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support
is provided by 83.92. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the price from
reaching our awaited target 82.65, except for the BoJ. And if the â€śJapsâ€ť keep
quiet, we could see 79.75 later, may be next month.
83.92: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterdayâ€™s low, and 15-year low
â€˘ 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan
& Nov 09, on the weekly chart.
â€˘ 79.75: this pairâ€™s historical
â€˘ 85.45: the falling trend line from June 4th
top on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low.
â€˘ 87.70: June
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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