Stock Index futures are relatively quiet overnight and the
outlook is for a slightly lower opening, nonetheless, last nightâ€™s close has
the indices on a seven-week low and in a position to work lower.
The worsening outlook for the economy continues to tell
investors to buy Treasurys. The Fed told us a couple of weekâ€™s ago to buy
Treasury Bonds. Japan
and large institutions have been buying Treasury Bonds. All of these
transactions are telling us to be conservative.
The Treasury Bonds are in a true bull market yet it almost
seems that it has been difficult for some major players in the market to admit
that they have missed this rally. Almost everyday someone is coming out in the
media calling for an asset â€śbubbleâ€ť, yet the Treasurys continue to soar higher.
In fact if you google â€śTreasury Bond Bubbleâ€ť, you will find references back to
at least 2008 calling for such an event after the Fed first lowered interest
rates to virtually zero.
The inability to admit that they have missed the bull market
may be one reason why some analysts and the media are calling for a top, but at
some point it seems it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Markets do make
corrections so it is likely the Treasury Bonds will break from their lofty
levels at some time, but letâ€™s hope that each correction is not met with â€śI
told you soâ€ť articles.
Years ago the Treasury warned of a housing bubble, but
offered no alternative to holding your home. No one spoke up and said â€śsell
your primary homeâ€ť because the market is going to come down and prices are
going to collapse.
U.S. Treasury markets are a unique asset class. An
investment pays you guaranteed interest and the principal is guaranteed.
Stocks, gold and other commodities are not guaranteed. No one is saying keep
all your eggs in one basket because obviously you can lose buying power if
interest rates begin to rise, but there are thousands of investors who are
buying Treasurys for the interest payment and principal guarantee. Thousands who
are willing to hold on to there investments until maturity.
With the U.S.
economy cooling off and some warning of a possible double-dip recession,
Treasury investors are reacting no differently than a person in the path of a
hurricane. They are taking protection. There doesnâ€™t seem to be any rampant
speculation. In fact this recent run in the September Treasury Bonds from about
the 130â€™00 area was triggered when the Fed said it was using the proceeds from
its mortgage investments to buy Treasuries. As an investor, it seems prudent to
want to be on the side of the Fed.
Overnight traders are taking a cautious approach ahead of
the Durable goods and New Home Sales Reports. Tuesdayâ€™s worse than expected
U.S. Existing Home Sales hit the equity markets hard as it served as strong
evidence that the economy was cooling off.
Economists are estimating new home sales in July to be
330,000. Any data that is weaker than expected will weigh on market sentiment.
This means that the prevailing asset allocation strategy will continue with
investors shedding risky assets in favor of the protection of the Treasury
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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