***Economic data*** - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 20th: 4.9% v 13.0% prior - (US) July Durable Goods Orders: 0.3% v 3.0%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -3.8% v 0.5%e; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense ex-aircraft: -8.0% v +3.6% prior; Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: -1.5% v +1.0% prior - (TU) Turkey Aug Capacity Utilization: 73.4% v 74.7% prior; Industrial Confidence: 111.0 v 112.7 prior - (US) July New Home Sales: 276K v 330Ke - (US) Jun House Price Purchase Index M/M: -0.3% v 0.1%e; Q/Q: +0.9% v -0.4%e - (MX) Mexico Q2 GDP Y/Y: 11.5% v 12.3%e; Current Account Balance: -$714M v -$659Me - (MX) Mexico July Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.5%e - (US) DOE weekly energy inventories: Crude: +4.1M v +400Ke; Gasoline: +2.27M v -300Ke; Distillate: +1.76M v +1Me; Utilization: % v 89.5%e ***Fixed Income*** - (RU) Russia sold RUB1.3B v RUB15B indicated in Aug 2016 OFZ Bonds; avg yield 7.39%
- Weaker data and risk aversion are pushing down equities and fueling the flight to safety once again this morning after the poor showing in US durables and housing data. US new home sales fell to their lowest level on record in July, while home prices fell to a six-year low in June (recall that yesterday the rate existing home sales in July data fell to their lowest level in 15 years). The July durables numbers were very weak, with the series missing expectations by wide margins. The DJIA fell below the key 10,000 level just after the open, while the S&P500 found support at 1,040. European September Bund and Gilt futures set fresh record highs as the yields on the instruments hit record lows. Yield on the US 10-year bond is approaching 2.45% for the first time since January 2009. Spot gold is benefiting from the safe-haven flows and was moving back towards striking distance of its all-time highs and traded above $1,240/oz.
- The housing data may be dire, but homebuilder Toll Brothers is doing quite well this morning. The company reported its first quarterly profit in nearly three years, although the gain was due mostly to tax benefits and lower write downs on land holdings. Before these factors, Toll broke even. Note that the company's backlog is smaller than last quarter, and its FY10 guidance range for home deliveries is a bit tighter than back in May. Shares of TOL were up 4% just after the open, but are heading lower after the data. Shares of mall chain American Eagle Outfitters are up 4% after largely in line Q2 results. Brown Shoe Company is down 9% despite better than expected results and solid guidance. Railcar maker Greenbrier has been volatile on two news items. The firm warned that a major marine customer may cancel some orders, but also disclosed a big chunk of new business as well. Shares of GBX fell 4% before the open, rocketed up to +6% after the bell and are around +2% mid morning.
- The US durable goods data is fueling concerns over the strength of the global economic recovery as one of the few remaining bright spots in the US showed signs of cooling. The greenback was mixed during the New York session as the continued string of soft US data prompted various key analysts; Goldman Sachs O'Neill warned that more disappointing data might spur a fresh round of Fed easing measures. EUR/USD is off its worst levels and trading above the 1.2670 level in the mid-NY morning. EUR/CHF is off its historic lows and back above the 1.30 handle after the SNB's Hildebrand reiterated that the central bank would respond to any new deflationary risks.
- Peripheral spreads continue to widen on risk aversion flows with the spread between Irish/German 10-year Gov't bonds at 345bps (record) and the spread between Greek/German 10-year Gov't bonds back above the 930bps level. EUR/CHF cross continues to test fresh all-time lows as a result with 1.2975 dealt in the NY morning.
***Looking Ahead*** - (FR) France July Net Change Jobseekers: +14.0Ke v -8.6K prior - (US) Treasury to Sell $36B in 5-Year Notes
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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