The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2725
level and was supported around the $1.2610 level.Technically, today‚Äôs intraday low was right
around the 50% retracement of the $1.1880 ‚Äď 1.3360 range and euro bulls lacked
the conviction to test the 100-day moving average around the $1.2745
level.The markets have become very
volatile during the last several trading sessions and traders are trying to digest
several key factors including declining U.S. economic fundamentals, ongoing
credit issues in the eurozone, regulatory uncertainty, and the sustainability
of official bids in the markets from central banks and governments.Data released in the U.S. today added to the
perception of a deceleration in U.S. economic activity.July durable goods orders climbed 0.3% at the
headline level but the ex-transportation component was off 3.8%, much worse
than expected.The capital goods
non-defense ex-aircraft orders component of the durables number was sharply
weaker than expected and this added to a view of a sizable pullback in U.S.
economic activity.Other data released
today saw July new home sales off 12.4% m/m to an annualized 276,000 units,
consistent with yesterday‚Äôs data that evidenced a major pullback in existing
home sales.Similarly, the June house
price index was off 0.3% m/m.Data to be
released tomorrow include weekly initial jobless claims and continuing jobless
claims.The recent underperformance of
U.S. economic indicators lend credence to those forecasts that are focusing on
a double dip recession.The downturn in
capital spending is a major concern because this sector was the strongest in
the U.S. economy over the past year.In eurozone news, EMU-16 M3 money
supply data will be released tomorrow.Data
released in Germany today saw the August Ifo business climate survey improve to
106.7 while the current assessment sub-index climbed to 108.2 and the
expectations sub-index ticked lower to 105.2.Also, French total jobseekers fell 14,400.Ireland‚Äôs credit rating was lowered one step
by Standard & Poor‚Äôs to AA-.Euro
offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offer around the ¬•84.65
level and was supported around the ¬•83.90 level. The pair retraced some of yesterday‚Äôs losses
following a report in the Japanese media that Japanese monetary authorities
were considering unilateral yen-selling intervention. Most dealers believe
Japan will be unable to obtain bilateral or multilateral cooperation to conduct
yen-selling intervention.There is,
however, a growing consensus that Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy
further.Finance minister Noda reported
the government is ‚Äúclosely‚ÄĚ cooperating with the central bank, leading to new
speculation the BoJ may expand a credit easing facility it enacted last year to
counter deflation, provide ample liquidity to the markets, and keep a lid on
Japanese government bond rates.Noda
added the government will ‚Äútake appropriate action when necessary,‚ÄĚ a statement
long considered to be the final salvo before actual yen-selling intervention is
expected in the market.There is
speculation Bank of Japan‚Äôs Policy Board may accelerate its scheduled 6-7
September meeting if market conditions warrant, itself a signal that monetary
authorities are concerned with the yen‚Äôs appreciation, weakening equity prices,
and declining global economic activity.News
that BoJ Governor Shirakawa will attend the Kansas City Fed‚Äôs Jackson Hole
symposium from 26-30 August also has the markets predicting intervention or
additional easing remain imminent.Data
released in Japan overnight saw the July corporate service price index decline
1.2% y/y while the July merchandise trade balance expanded to ¬•610.4
billion.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost
1.66% to close at ¬•8,845.39.U.S. dollar
bids are cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•107.60 level and was supported around the ¬•105.90 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•130.70 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7989 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7969. Data
released in China overnight saw the July leading index decline to 102.10 from
the prior reading of 102.84.Many
economists are speculating Chinese inflation is higher than is actually being
reported by the government.It was
reported recently that July CPI printed at 3.3% y/y, a 21-month high.Many private forecasts suggest the rate of
actual inflation in China may be 6% or higher.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5460 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5390 level. August CBI reported sales will be released
tomorrow followed by Q2 total gross domestic product on Friday.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
member Weale yesterday warned the U.K. economy faces a ‚Äúsignificant‚ÄĚ risk of
falling into a double-dip recession.Mortgage lending has tumbled 18.5% in the U.K. over the past year yet
inflation remains significantly elevated and may require official higher rates
from the central bank.Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8180 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.8255 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0260 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0340 level. Data to be released in Switzerland tomorrow
include Q2 labour market data followed by the August KOF Swiss leading
indicator on Friday.Swiss National Bank
Chairman Roth today reported ‚ÄúIf deflation risks re-emerged, we‚Äôd seek to
counter them. That‚Äôs not the case.‚ÄĚHildebrand reiterated there are significant risks on the central bank‚Äôs
balance sheet now and added ‚ÄúIt‚Äôs in our deepest interest that Europe returns
to its stability path.‚ÄĚU.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.2980
level while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5830 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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