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Thursday August 26, 2010 - 10:03:44 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update (Trade the News)

Thursday, August 26, 2010 5:54:22 AM

 European Market Update:


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Aug 20th: $475.2B v $476.2B prior
- (GE) Germany Sept GfK Consumer Confidence: 4.1 v 4.0e
- (IN) Primary Articles WPI Y/Y w/e Aug 14th: 14.8% v 14.9% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 10.1% v 10.4% prior
- (SP) Spain Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: +0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e
- (SZ) Swiss Q2 Employment Level Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Employment Level: 3.968M v 3.975Me
- (SW) Sweden July Trade Balance (SEK): 10.3B v 6.5Be
- (SW) Sweden July PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e
- (SW) Sweden July Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.9%e
- (SW) Sweden July Household Lending Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.9% prior
- (NE) Netherlands Aug Producer Confidence: +0.4 v -2.6e
- (IT) Italy Aug Consumer Confidence: 104.1 v 105.3e
- (DE) Denmark July Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.2%e
- (EU)Euro Zone M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e; M3 three-month avg: 0.1% v 0.1%e
- (PH) Philippine Central Bank (BSP) maintained the Overnight Borrowing Rate at the current 4.00% level; As expected
- (HK) Trade Balance (HKD): -30.5B v -31.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 23.3% v 30%e; Imports Y/Y: 24.9% v 31%e
- (IC) Iceland Aug CPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.8% prior
- (SA) South Africa July PPI M/M: 1.3% v 2.3%e; Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency solf total of €13.5B in 6-month Bills and 2012 Zero Coupon Bonds; as expected
- Sold €9.5B v €9.5B indicated in 6-month (Feb 2011) Bills; avg yield 0.958% v 1.034% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.58x v 1.98x prior
- Sold €4.0B v €4.0B indicated in 2012 Zero Coupon Bonds; avg yield 1.721% v 1.643% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.58 x v 1.58x prior
- (IR) Ireland sold €600M in 6-month and 8-month Bills v €40-600M range indicated
- Sold €200M in 6-month (182-day) Bills; avg yield 1.978% v 2.458% prior; Bid-to-cover: 10.1x v 3.6x prior
- Sold €400M in 8-month (245-day) Bills; avg yield 2.348% v 2.81% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.1x v 3.1x prior
-(HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold total HUF50B in 2014,2016 and 2020 Bonds
- Sold HUF20B in Feb 2014 Bonds; avg yield 6.88% v 6.82% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 2.0x prior
- Sold HUF15B in Feb 2016 Bonds; avg yield 7.00% v 6.87% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.7x prior
- Sold HUF15B in Nov 2020 Bonds; avg yield 7.05% v 7.09% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.6x prior

- Standard & Poors: US will need to address its ballooning budget deficit to protect its "AAA" sovereign rating.
- Precious metals maintain a form tone on safe-haven flows. Silver roses by almost 10% in recent sessions.
- Stocks mange to register some gains in session
- Equities:
- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.6% at 2,603; DAX Index +0.3% at 5,919; CAC-40 Index +0.6% at 3,470 and FTSE 100 Index +0.7% at 5,143

- France's largest retail bank Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] boosted the financial sector after its second quarter results beat significantly analysts estimates. Furthermore, the bank reported a profit growth of 89% on a yearly basis despite the negative contribution from the Greek bank Emporiki. In line with its French peers cost of risk and provisions were lower offsetting the rise of provisions from Emporiki. The profits were sustained by a notable rise in private and retail banking. Shares opened 5.8% higher and continue to trade higher lifting other European banks shares as well.
French hotelier Accor [AC.FR], reported a 120% increase in operating profit at €154M and noted an encouraging performance. Shares were higher after company targeted an FY10 EBIT of €370-390M
- Dutch supermarket operator, Ahold [AH.NV] reported an increase of 3% in net profit which came slightly lower than estimates. The net profit was negatively impacted by a €47M tax claims from Swedish retailer ICA AB where Ahold has a 60% stake. Revenues were in line with estimates while operating profit was higher. Like for like sales increase was encouraging especially in the US where company outperformed its US competitors such as Wal-Mart.
- In the UK, Diageo [DGE.UK] reported results in line with estimates and increased the dividend by 6%, all of which failed to impress the market and industry analysts who were expecting a higher increase. Shares were also hurt as management stated that company remained cautious especially in North America and Europe. Management expected to improve on the organic operating profit growth delivered this year but industry analysts were skeptical given the low increase in dividend and no share repurchases. Miner Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] increased its underlying profit by 61% on a yearly basis citing higher prices. Revenues were also higher than last year but lower than estimates. Company gave a positive outlook on copper production.

- Speakers:
- Czech Central Bank's Janacek commented in a newspaper interview that it was clear that the period of low interest rates had come to an end. The question was how long could Czech interest rates remain below those of the ECB. He added that it was not an advantage for the Czech economy to have low rates and that the central bank Board would discuss interest rates in Q4.
- China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Zhang: China property prices remain elevated; global recovery not solid
- Czech Fin Ministry lowers its 2010 borrowing needs ltoCZK244B from CZK280B prior
- Japan Vice Min Ikeda: Rapid JPY appreciation is undesirable (in line with G7 and recent Japanese official comments). He also reiterated that he wanted the BoJ to make utmost efforts to support growth and that he was 'closely' watching currency markets with 'great interest'
- Japan Fin Min Noda: Ministers to discuss schedule for fiscal stimulus on Friday. Aug 27th
- S&P commented on UK bank performance and noted that it remained far from certain and cautious on whether UK banks' improvement could be sustained
- Shadow Sec Miliband: Coalition gov't is putting UK economic recovery at risk
- Germany BGA Export Association commented that the curent Euro fx rate was not a concern and it reaffirmed its 2010 export growth forecast of 10%
- China PBoC advisor in a report stated that China would not relax its CNY7.5T lending target in H2 of 2010 and added that the 2011 level would not be below this year> he stressed that China could not relax property control measures and might take as many as 3 years to slow housing bubble. On the currency front, he noted that the pace of yuan internationalization was speeding up was a long way from being international currency.

- Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The steady to higher tone in both Asian and European stocks provided a retracement in the currency markets. The EUR/USD managed a brief test above the pivotal hourly point of 1.2730 but quickly fell back into its recent range within the 1.26 neighborhood. Earlier comments from S&P sovereign analyst that the US would need to address its ballooning budget deficit to protect its "AAA" provided the European session with the momentum to gun for Euro buy stops in various pairs. The JPY was softer on continued rhetoric on possible currency intervention and renewed stimulus steps to aid the Japanese economy. USD/JPY was in the mid- 84 area while EUR/JPY briefly tested the 108 figure. EUR/CHF off its all-time lows registered yesterday and tested above 1.3150 before settling done back ij the mid 1.30 range.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- The Telegraph's business editor Evans-Pritchard commented on the recent safe haven related gains for the Swiss Franc. He noted that the move is being driven by capital flight from the European Union on renewed concerns over the debts of Ireland, Greece and Portugal. According to BNP currency chief Redeker, the inflows into the Swiss Franc have been an early warning sign at each stage of the European debt crisis and we may be seeing a return to the conditions seen in May.
- Also reported in the Telegraph, according to Tom Bush, member of the 'Urgent Issues Task Force', he voiced concern that the British bank accounting rules may have serious flaws which he discovered while reviewing the proposed expansion of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for accounting. Bush said that when the accounting standards are applied to British banks, the results produced false profits and overstated capital.
- It was reported today that Greece's securities regulator, Capital Markets Commission, considered lifting the short-selling ban after the extend date of the 31st of August.

***Looking Ahead***
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK8.0B in 364-day Bills
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB5B in OBR Notes
- 6:00 (UK) Aug CBI Distributed Sales: 18e v 33 prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil July Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 7.0% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 490Ke v 500K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.495Me v 4.478M prior
- 8:30 (BR) Brazil July Central Gov't Budget (BRL) 3.0Be v 630M prior
- 9:00 (US) Jun RPX Composite 28day Y/Y: No est v 2.14% prior; RPX Composite 28day Index: No est v 195.86 prior
- 10:00 (US) Q2 Mortgage Delinquencies: No est v 10.06% prior; MBA Mortgage in Foreclosures: No est v 4.63% prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil July Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -13.6B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 4.8Be v 2.1B prior; Net Debt /GDP ratio: 41.5%e% v 41.4% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell 7-Year Notes



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