Wednesday April 6, 2005 - 01:15:29 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen Price:
Resistance: 108.50 ... 108.88 ... 109.15 ... 109.46
Support....: 108.03 ... 107.80 ... 107.43 ... 107.08
Cautiously we feel we shall see a loss of 107.76-80 to cause losses down to 107.00-10
Price reached the 108.75-109.10 resistance area and although we would have preferred a test of 109.10 we feel the risk is for a top to have been seen at 108.88. Thus we can only revert to a bullish stance should a move back above 108.50-55 be seen in which case we could see the additional gains ot 109.08-14 and we feel that this may also mean a move up to 109.46 and 109.76.
With the target area attained we are more inclined to a bearish view today though there is just a little more to go to confirm this. Break level is around 107.76-80 and until this occurs we should see price remain below 108.50-55. Loss of 107.76-80 should allow losses down to 107.00-10 where we anticipate a small pullback ahead of a move down to 106.60-80 at least which stands a chance of providing a floor. However, a fuller retracement target rests at 106.25.
Elliott Wave Comments:
5th April 2005
We have made a large adjustment to the wave count with the peak at 106.84 now counted as Wave [i] and the decline to 103.64 as Wave [ii]. If we take the wave count in black it suggests a target at 108.48 for Wave [v] but we feel that the structure from the 106.25 low does not really support this. Thus we should consider the wave count in blue which would have 106.62 as Wave -iv- and this would then target the 109.08 area for Wave -v-. This also happens to represent wave equality of the move from 101.67 to 106.84 projected from the 103.64 low.
However, having developed in 5-waves this should only be Wave [a] of Wave [iii] and thus we expect a pullback from 109.08-14 in Wave[b] before the larger rally can continue in Wave [c] of Wave [iii].
6th April 2005
Our target for the end of Wave -v- did not get reached but we feel that the 108.88 high should be the end of Wave [a] of Wave [iii] higher. Thus we can expect somewhere between 38.2% and 50% retracement in Wave [b] these levels being at 106.87 and 106.25 respectively. A level closer to the high end of this range would appear to fit in with projections of Wave [c] to end around the 112.00 area which represents a 161.8% projection in Wave [iii].
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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