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Thursday August 26, 2010 - 21:51:25 GMT
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FX Market Commentary and Analysis (26 August 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2765 level and was supported around the $1.2650 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the $1.3335 – 1.2580 range while today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the broader $1.5140 – 1.1880 range.  Traders were encouraged to add a little more risk today after U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected at +473,000, down from the upwardly-revised previous print of 504,000.  Continuing jobless claims fell to 4.456 million from the revised prior print of 4.518 million.  These claims data remain elevated, however, and will raise the emphasis on next Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report.  Early estimates are calling for August non-farm payrolls growth of 40,000 to 50,000 and an uptick in the August unemployment rate to 9.6%.  Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, who has continued to dissent with other Federal Open Market Committee officials on their interest rate calls to keep rates steady, opened the Jackson Hole symposium today and called for a broader array of opinions and debate and not “group think.” Traders will closely monitor remarks from Fed officials at the Jackson Hole symposium for any indications the Fed may be leaning toward expanding its purchase of assets in the secondary market to enhance liquidity and keep market rates capped.  In eurozone news, data released today saw EMU-16 July M3 money supply up 0.2% y/y while the German September GfK consume confidence survey ticked higher to 4.1.  Provisional German August CPI data will be released tomorrow.  It is being reported European lenders may face reverse stress tests in the eurozone to evaluate their solvency.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥84.30 level and was capped around the ¥84.90 level.  Traders continued to engage in a cat-and-mouse game with Japanese monetary authorities, testing their resolve to conduct yen-selling intervention to prevent the yen from appreciating further.  The Japanese media has this week suggested Japanese officials may conduct unilateral yen-selling intervention absent international cooperation from U.S. or European officials.  Prime Minister Kan’s government increased pressure on Bank of Japan to stimulate the economy as the ruling Democratic Party of Japan called on the BoJ to “speedily take further steps” and “do everything it can” to counter deflation.  Kan is also facing a leadership challenge in elections next month from DPJ official Ozawa and this is another reason for the increased pressure.  There remains speculation the central bank will accelerate its Policy Board meeting scheduled for 6-7 September of account of the yen’s continued strength, struggling equity prices, persistent deflation, and weakening international economic activity.  Some traders believe the central bank and government will coordinate additional economic expansion.  Japanese government bonds gave back recent gains on speculation the BoJ could delay additional monetary easing.  Data to be released in Japan tonight include the July jobless rate, July household spending, August Tokyo-area consumer price inflation, and the July national consumer price index.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.69% to close at ¥8,906.48.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥84.60 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥108.00 figure and was supported around the ¥107.00 figure.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥132.00 figure while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥82.70 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7996 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7989.   Data to be released in China overnight include the August MNI business conditions survey.  Data released in China yesterday saw the July leading index decline to 102.10 from the prior reading of 102.84.  Sources indicate Chinese officials convened recently and it is “very unlikely” People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates this year.  PBoC adviser Xia Bin reported China will not relax its 2010 lending target of CNY 7.5 trillion.  Many economists are speculating Chinese inflation is higher than is actually being reported by the government.  It was reported recently that July CPI printed at 3.3% y/y, a 21-month high.  Many private forecasts suggest the rate of actual inflation in China may be 6% or higher.


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5595 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5455 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw August CBI reported sales print stronger-than-expected at +35, up from the prior reading of +33.  Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include Q2 gross domestic product growth.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Weale this week warned the U.K. economy faces a “significant” risk of falling into a double-dip recession.  Mortgage lending has tumbled 18.5% in the U.K. over the past year yet inflation remains significantly elevated and may require official higher rates from the central bank.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8155 level and was capped around the £0.8195 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0220 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0315 level.  Swiss National Bank Chairman Roth this week reported “If deflation risks re-emerged, we’d seek to counter them. That’s not the case.”  Hildebrand reiterated there are significant risks on the central bank’s balance sheet now and added “It’s in our deepest interest that Europe returns to its stability path.”  He also warned Swiss economic growth may be weaker in the second half of the year.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the Q2 employment level climb 0.6% y/y to 3.968 million.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3010 level while the British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6065 level.


Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)



             (Bid Price)       (Today’s Intraday Range)                             


EUR/ USD      1.2638                1.2726, 1.2608
USD/ JPY         84.28                  84.67,   83.90
GBP/ USD      1.5552                1.5596, 1.5456
USD/ CHF      1.0247                1.0317, 1.0221
AUD/USD       0.8874                0.8917, 0.8831
USD/CAD       1.0545                1.0604,
NZD/USD       0.7032                0.7087, 0.6981
EUR/ JPY       107.54                108.00, 107.00
EUR/ GBP      0.8173                0.8193, 0.8153
GBP/ JPY        131.56                132.01, 130.69
CHF/ JPY          82.56                  82.70,   82.02












Support                       Resistance                  Support                    Resistance


EUR/ USD                                                           USD/ JPY


L1.       1.2575                         1.2870                            81.80                          87.15

L2.       1.2440                         1.3045                            80.80                          88.25
L3.       1.2220                         1.3290                            77.20                          89.45


   GBP/ USD                                                        USD/ CHF


L1.       1.5230                         1.5810                         1.0215                         1.0600

L2.       1.5010                         1.6040                         1.0095                         1.0820

L3.       1.4860                         1.6210                         0.9925                         1.1040


 AUD/ USD                                                        USD/ CAD


L1.       0.8645                         0.8965                         1.0450                         1.0860

L2.       0.8510                         0.9065                         1.0240                         1.1060

L3.       0.8345                         0.9220                         1.0005                         1.1490



 NZD/ USD                                                        EUR/ JPY


L1.       0.6910                         0.7220                         103.40                         108.90

L2.       0.6590                         0.7445                         101.15                         113.25

L3.       0.6265                         0.7585                           99.90                         118.05


  EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF


L1.       0.7870                         0.8320                         1.2845                         1.3330

L2.       0.7785                         0.8535                         1.2650                         1.3615

L3.       0.7415                         0.8745                         1.2430                         1.3985


  GBP/ JPY                                                         CHF/ JPY


L1.       126.70                         135.35                           78.35                          82.65

L2.       123.30                         138.40                           76.45                          85.80

L3.       118.85                         140.70                           75.05                          87.15










Thursday, 26 August 2010

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)


0715    CH                   Q2 employment level (3.961 million)

0715    CH                   Q2 employment level (0.1% y/y)

0730    Italy                 August consumer confidence

0800    Eurozone         July M3 money supply (0.2% y/y)

1000    UK                  August CBI reported sales (33)

1230    US                   Weekly initial jobless claims (500,000)

1230    US                   Continuing jobless claims

2330    Japan               July household spending (0.5% y/y)

2330    Japan               July jobless rate (5.3%)

2330    Japan               July consumer price index (-0.7% y/y)

2330    Japan               July CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.5% y/y)

2330    Japan               July Tokyo-area CPI (-1.2% y/y)

2330    Japan               July Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.4% y/y)


Friday, 27 August 2010

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)


0830    UK                  Q2 gross domestic product (1.1% q/q)

0830    UK                  Q2 gross domestic product (1.6% y/y)

0930    CH                   August KOF Swiss leading indicator (2.23)

1230    US                   Q2 PCE, core (1.1% q/q)

1230    US                   Q2 gross domestic product (2.4%)

1230    US                   Q2 GDP price index (1.8%)

1355    US                   August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (1.6%)

1400    US                   Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks


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