The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2765
level and was supported around the $1.2650 level.Technically, today‚Äôs intraday high was right
around the 38.2% retracement of the $1.3335 ‚Äď 1.2580 range while today‚Äôs
intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the broader $1.5140 ‚Äď 1.1880
range.Traders were encouraged to add a
little more risk today after U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in
lower-than-expected at +473,000, down from the upwardly-revised previous print
of 504,000.Continuing jobless claims
fell to 4.456 million from the revised prior print of 4.518 million.These claims data remain elevated, however,
and will raise the emphasis on next Friday‚Äôs August non-farm payrolls
report.Early estimates are calling for
August non-farm payrolls growth of 40,000 to 50,000 and an uptick in the August
unemployment rate to 9.6%.Kansas City
Fed President Hoenig, who has continued to dissent with other Federal Open
Market Committee officials on their interest rate calls to keep rates steady,
opened the Jackson Hole symposium today and called for a broader array of
opinions and debate and not ‚Äúgroup think.‚ÄĚ Traders will closely monitor remarks
from Fed officials at the Jackson Hole symposium for any indications the Fed
may be leaning toward expanding its purchase of assets in the secondary market
to enhance liquidity and keep market rates capped.In
eurozone news, data released today saw EMU-16 July M3 money supply up 0.2%
y/y while the German September GfK consume confidence survey ticked higher to
4.1.Provisional German August CPI data
will be released tomorrow.It is being
reported European lenders may face reverse stress tests in the eurozone to
evaluate their solvency.Euro offers
are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•84.30
level and was capped around the ¬•84.90 level. Traders continued to engage in a cat-and-mouse
game with Japanese monetary authorities, testing their resolve to conduct
yen-selling intervention to prevent the yen from appreciating further.The Japanese media has this week suggested
Japanese officials may conduct unilateral yen-selling intervention absent
international cooperation from U.S. or European officials.Prime Minister Kan‚Äôs government increased pressure
on Bank of Japan to stimulate the economy as the ruling Democratic Party of
Japan called on the BoJ to ‚Äúspeedily take further steps‚ÄĚ and ‚Äúdo everything it
can‚ÄĚ to counter deflation.Kan is also
facing a leadership challenge in elections next month from DPJ official Ozawa
and this is another reason for the increased pressure.There remains speculation the central bank
will accelerate its Policy Board meeting scheduled for 6-7 September of account
of the yen‚Äôs continued strength, struggling equity prices, persistent
deflation, and weakening international economic activity.Some traders believe the central bank and
government will coordinate additional economic expansion.Japanese government bonds gave back recent
gains on speculation the BoJ could delay additional monetary easing.Data to be released in Japan tonight include
the July jobless rate, July household spending, August Tokyo-area consumer
price inflation, and the July national consumer price index.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.69% to
close at ¬•8,906.48.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•108.00 figure and was supported around the ¬•107.00 figure.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•132.00 figure while the Swiss franc
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.70 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7996 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7989. Data to
be released in China overnight include the August MNI business conditions
survey.Data released in China yesterday
saw the July leading index decline to 102.10 from the prior reading of
102.84.Sources indicate Chinese
officials convened recently and it is ‚Äúvery unlikely‚ÄĚ People‚Äôs Bank of China
will raise interest rates this year.PBoC
adviser Xia Bin reported China will not relax its 2010 lending target of CNY
7.5 trillion.Many economists are
speculating Chinese inflation is higher than is actually being reported by the
government.It was reported recently
that July CPI printed at 3.3% y/y, a 21-month high.Many private forecasts suggest the rate of
actual inflation in China may be 6% or higher.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5595 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5455 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw August CBI
reported sales print stronger-than-expected at +35, up from the prior reading
of +33.Data to be released in the U.K.
tomorrow include Q2 gross domestic product growth.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
member Weale this week warned the U.K. economy faces a ‚Äúsignificant‚ÄĚ risk of
falling into a double-dip recession.Mortgage lending has tumbled 18.5% in the U.K. over the past year yet
inflation remains significantly elevated and may require official higher rates
from the central bank.Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8155 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.8195 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0220 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0315 level. Swiss National Bank Chairman Roth this week
reported ‚ÄúIf deflation risks re-emerged, we‚Äôd seek to counter them. That‚Äôs not
the case.‚ÄĚHildebrand reiterated there
are significant risks on the central bank‚Äôs balance sheet now and added ‚ÄúIt‚Äôs
in our deepest interest that Europe returns to its stability path.‚ÄĚHe also warned Swiss economic growth may be
weaker in the second half of the year.Data released in Switzerland today saw the Q2 employment level climb
0.6% y/y to 3.968 million.U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3010
level while the British pound moved higher
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6065 level.
Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.4% y/y)
Friday, 27 August
all times GMT
(last release in
domestic product (1.1% q/q)
domestic product (1.6% y/y)
KOF Swiss leading indicator (2.23)
core (1.1% q/q)
gross domestic product (2.4%)
price index (1.8%)
University of Michigan consumer sentiment (1.6%)
Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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