December Gold posted a closing price reversal top on
Thursday after an attempted breakout to the upside failed to attract strong
buyers. You canâ€™t really blame the slightly better than expected U.S. Weekly
Initial Claims report for putting in the top, but this news did contribute to
the day-long decline as sentiment shifted away from risk aversion.
Gold traded sharply lower early this week as traders dumped
risky assets because of the cooling economy. December Gold attracted fresh
buyers after a dip to $1211.70 as investors sought protection from a falling
equity market. The low yields in Treasurys also encouraged investors to buy
Continue to expect these asset allocation shifts between
gold, fixed income, equities and currencies as investors try to rebalance their
accounts to catch undervalued markets. Wednesdayâ€™s rally in Gold may have been
a signal that investors are fed up with weak equity markets and not interested
in the low yields offered by the Treasury markets.
December Crude Oil followed through to the upside following
Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. Based on the range of 84.45 to
72.35, the market is set up for a retracement to a 50% level at 78.41 but this
seems unlikely unless upside momentum picks up. A downtrending Gann angle at
75.95 could limit gains on Thursday.
Equity markets rallied early Thursday following a slightly
better Weekly Initial Claims Report but were unable to hold onto gains as worry
about tomorrowâ€™s speech by Bernanke and the Second Quarter GDP estimate proved
too much for investors to handle.
Even after Wednesdayâ€™s technical reversal and follow-through
this morning, traders had to be asking themselves, â€śwhat the heck are we doing
on the long side of this marketâ€ť. After this weekâ€™s dismal housing and durable
goods reports, there was very little reason to stay with the long-side of the
market especially ahead of Bernankeâ€™s speech to the central bankers at the
conference in Jackson Hole,
After trying to maintain a â€śrisk-onâ€ť mentality early in the
session, sentiment shifted to risk aversion triggering a break in equities and
a rally in the Treasury Bond market. Traders will be watching this weekâ€™s low
in the September E-mini S&P 500 very carefully tomorrow. The charts
indicate that there may be a freefall if 1038.75 is taken out with conviction.
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