Friday August 27, 2010 - 07:20:00 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 27-Aug-2010 - 0531 GMT
A sub-10000 closing for the Dow (9985.81, - 0.74%) yesterday, the first such since 06-July. Growth concerns continue to dominate. While it is possible that chances of a "double dip" might be low, there could be chances of poor growth.
Asian stocks are mixed, with a bit of a bearish tilt. The Shanghai (2606) is trading flat, up 0.11%. The Nikkei (8829, - 0.87%) is now trading below an important support line, as may be seen on the Weekly Candles on the following page:
The Sensex (18226.35) and Nifty (5472.85) closed near support levels yesterday, but are not looking extraordinarily strong. While a bear phase is not about the start immediately, we are not in a runaway bull market either. Slow ascent is the best that can be hoped for.
Curde (73.02) us continuing to trade higher. More than expected fall in the US jobless claims data released yesterday supported the price rise. Some Resistance is seen at 74 and a break above it might take it further up towards 75.00-76.00. Support is seen at 72.30. The US GDP data release is due today which will be watched closely by the market.
Gold (1236.80) is ranged between 1230-1245 over the last couple of days within its overall uptrend. Resistance is seen in 1245-1250 and a break above it might take the Commodity further up towards 1275 in the coming days. Support is seen at 1220.
The Euro (1.2711) has come off slightly from a high near 1.2764 yesterday. Important Resistance seen at 1.2755-65 today. The overall trend remains bearish. Dollar-Yen (84.55) has dropped back after rallying to 84.88 yesterday and remains bearish overall, with good Resistance at 85.20 at the moment. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.50) has also dipped back a bit and has crucial intra-day Resistance at 107.60.
It is quite possible that the market may be quiet today ahead of the US GDP data release in the evening, which is expected to come in at 1.5%, compared to 2.4% last time.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0235) continues to grind lower and should have little trouble in falling towards 1.0100-0050 in the coming days/ weeks. The Pound (1.5520) rose to as much as 1.5598 yesterday, but has come off from there. An intra-day dip to 1.5475 is possible. The Aussie (0.8918) also saw a corrective rally yesterday, but is coming off again. It may dip towards 0.8825 today.
The Korean Won (1196.30) remains weak. USD-SGD (1.3557) is just about managing to stay above this week's low near 1.3456. The Sing Dollar and the Malaysian Ringgitt are two Asian currencies (apart from the Yen) that are strong. Dollar-Rupee closed at 46.84 yesterday. It has Support at 46.70 and could rise towards 46.90-95 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The 2Y yields were up 1 bps at 0.52% and 10Y yields were down 5 bps at 2.48% respectively. The 10Y yields have fallen from about 4% in Apr-10 to their current lows, and if the market uncertainty were to continue, the charts show high chances of the rates flling further towards 2% in the coming months.
Markets will get better insight on the Fed's thinking when the worlds top central bankers come together for their annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo, today.
...Actual 5.2%...Previous 5.3%
12:30 GMT US GDP Q2 '10 (Pre)
...Expected 1.5%...Previous 2.4%
No major data released yesterday
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