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Friday August 27, 2010 - 15:47:11 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Friday, August 27, 2010 11:23:12 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +114 S&P +11.3 NASDAQ +18

***Economic data***
- (GE) Germany Aug CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.3% prior
- (US) Q2 Advanced
GDP Q/Q Annualized: 1.6% v 1.4%e; Personal Consumption: 2.0% v 1.6%e
- (US) Q2 Advanced
GDP Price Index: 1.9% v 1.8%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (GE) Germany Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%
- (GE) Germany Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 1.1%
- (US) Aug Final University of Michigan Confidence: 68.9 v 69.6e
- (PE) Peru Q2
GDP Y/Y: 10.1% v 6.0% prior

- Investors headed into the US session downplaying the importance of the second reading of Q2 US GDP and assuming that Fed Chairman Bernanke would not announce major new programs in his speech at the Jackson Hole confab. As expected,
GDP was revised lower from the preliminary reading from back on July 30, although the number was a bit better than the Street's estimates. Analysts noted that at this point, the advance Q3 GDP reading will be much more relevant given the recent deterioration in trends that has taken place in the third quarter. And as expected, Bernanke did not offer any major new initiatives in his speech, but merely signaled that the Fed was ready to act with more support if necessary. Fed dove Bullard scooped the chairman before the open, telling CNBC that the FOMC might do "a little more" in its QE2 program and should move in the direction of more explicitly stating what further options it has to extend more support to the economy. Markets offered a bit of a head fake right around the release of the Chairman's speech which was only exacerbated by official word from Intel that they are not going to meet full year sales projections. Initial equity weakness and bond purchases quickly reversed course, though, sending indices and bond yields to new highs while the Greenback lost some ground. The 10-year yield has climbed back above 2.6% while the benchmark spread is popped back above 205 basis points. Commodities including Gold, Silver, and Oil markets are all posting new highs on the day as well.

- HP and Dell have gone to war with each other over 3Par, with the bidding for the network storage firm evolving rapidly. Yesterday after the close HP hiked its offer to $27/shr, topping Dells prior $24.30/shr offer from earlier in the day. This morning Dell matched the $27/shr bid, and 3Par accepted the offer. Then HP further increased its offer to $30/shr just before the open of trading. Note that Dell still has a termination fee or break up fee of $72M, which is payable in the event that 3Par receives and accepts another proposal superior to Dell's offer. In other M&A news, Healthspring said it would acquire privately-owned Bravo Health for $545M. Healthspring sees the deal as significantly accretive to FY11 earnings. Shares of HS are up more than 4%.

- In not an entirely unexpected move, Intel cut its guidance for Q3 just after the open, citing weaker than expected demand for PCs in mature markets. Shares of INTC hardly reacted to the move, falling to -1% on the session, but AMD spiked down to -5% and sector ETF SMH fell 2%. Boeing delayed its first 787 delivery date until mid-Q1 of 2011. Just last month Boeing executives had insisted that they would be able to deliver the first 787s to customers by the end of 2010 or just a few weeks into 2011, but earlier this month a Rolls Royce engine to be used on the aircraft blew up in testing, further setting back delivery. Tiffany & Company had some holes in its Q2 earnings report, as the firm missed revenue expectations and warned that earnings growth in the third quarter would be "somewhat restrained" because of higher marketing spending. Shares of
TIF are down 5%.

- In FX, the better than expected headline GDP provoked some mild risk appetite which weighed upon the USD and JPY pairs. USD/JPY mustered enough momentum to move above the 85.00 level but encountered some problems in achieving sustainability. However, risk aversion did not vanish completely given Bullard's comment that the economic outlook was softening. The arrival of Intel's worse guidance and Bernanake's prepared text after the open sent USD/JPY back below the 84.50 level.

***Looking Ahead***
12:00 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel briefing on energy policy
14:00 (US) ECB'S Trichet from Jackson Hole
15:00 (AR) Argentina July Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 23.8% prior


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