Second Quarter GDP estimate came out at 1.6%. This was lower than the previous
guess of 2.4% but better than the estimate at 1.3%.
Stocks rallied on the news and Treasurys broke. The Dollar
index also rallied sharply higher. Remember though that these moves are just
knee-jerk reactions to the report. In reality the GDP fell which isnâ€™t good.
This may mean all of these markets have the potential to reverse their initial
The Dollar will be especially sensitive to this data. The
Euro may rally because the Euro Zone economy may be stronger than the U.S.
economy at this time. The higher-risk currencies will benefit if the stock
market rallies, but could fall if equity traders cannot sustain the rally.
It is amazing that the markets are reacting as if it is good
that the economy weakened. This shows traders how starved these markets are for
positive economic news.
After a few minutes traders will put the GDP report behind
them then turn their focus to Federal Reserve Chairman Bernankeâ€™s speech later
this morning. Traders want to hear Bernanke give some guidance but heâ€™s not
likely to say anything to erase the fact that the GDP is weakening and the
threat of a double-dip recession remains real.
Some traders are beginning to think that the Fed does not
have much left much left in their arsenal to stimulate the economy. This may
mean that Bernanke may call out the current administration for its lack of
Letâ€™s hope that Bernanke speaks with clarity and conviction.
The market wants answers now to help alleviate the current â€ścrisis in
The September E-mini S&P 500 is trying to build a
support base slightly above the weekâ€™s low at 1037.00. Uptrending Gann angle
support is at 1040.75 today.
On the upside, this market once again fell below a key .618
level at 1050.50. Regaining this level will be a sign that the market is
absorbing the selling pressure. Downtrending Gann angle resistance is at
1063.75. Additional resistance is at a 50% level at 1065.25.
September Treasury Bonds are still trading inside of
Wednesdayâ€™s wide range of 136â€™31 to 134â€™31, but above yesterdayâ€™s inside range.
Also Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal top pattern has yet to be confirmed.
The current chart pattern suggests this market could get explosive above 136â€™31
and extremely weak under 134â€™31.
Although the reversal pattern has frozen the market at this
time, there is no â€śrealâ€ť resistance. However on the downside, if the reversal
top is confirmed by a break through 134â€™31, then look for a possible
acceleration over the near-term to perhaps 131â€™16.
December Gold made a closing price reversal top on Thursday,
but this move hasnâ€™t been confirmed yet. A trade through $1235.10 will confirm
the pattern and set up a possible break to at least $1228.90. A break under
this level will be a sign that the selling is serious.
Gold has been sensitive to stock market movement lately. A
sharp break in the equity markets could drive gold sharply higher. A stronger
stock market could break gold.
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