The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2780
level and was supported around the $1.2675 level.The common currency reversed course and moved
to its highest level this week after the release of better-than-expected U.S.
second quarter gross domestic product data.It was reported the economy expanded an annualized 1.6% q/q in Q2, down
from Q1‚Äôs 2.4% pace but stronger-than-expected on higher-than-reported personal
consumption.Other data saw the Q2 GDP
price index tick higher to 1.9% while the Q2 core PCE price index was up 1.1%
q/q.Finally, the final August
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey moved lower to 68.9 from the
previous print of 69.6.U.S. debt
markets fell sharply today with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond off more than
three points, one of its most sizable declines in years.The common currency also moved higher after
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke indicated the Fed ‚Äúwill do all that it can‚ÄĚ
to extend the U.S. economic recovery.Bernanke noted ‚Äúthe Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary
accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary,
especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly.‚ÄĚBernanke suggested the ‚Äúpreconditions‚ÄĚ for
economic growth in 2011 ‚Äúare in place‚ÄĚ and added the risk of an ‚Äúundesirable
rise in inflation or of significant further disinflation seems low.‚ÄĚOne strategy Bernanke alluded to was shifting
the composition of its bond reinvestment strategy.On 10 August, the Federal Open Market
Committee announced it would reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed
securities into U.S. Treasuries.August
non-farm payrolls data will be released next Friday and are forecast to have
grown around 40,000 to 50,000 with the unemployment rate ticking higher to
9.6%.In eurozone news, the German July import price index was off 0.2%
m/m and up 9.9% y/y while provisional August consumer price inflation for most
German states moved lower, taking the national CPI index to 0.0% m/m and 1.0%
y/y at the headline level and up 0.0% m/m and 0.9% y/y at the harmonized level.European Central Bank President Trichet spoke
at the Jackson Hole symposium today and warned additional government spending
would be ‚Äúvery dangerous,‚ÄĚ adding fiscal consolidation need to be ‚Äúambitious.‚ÄĚEuro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•85.45
level and was supported around the ¬•84.25 level. Prime Minister Kan stepped up the verbal rhetoric
overnight, saying ‚ÄúWe are ready when necessary to take bold measures‚ÄĚ in the
currency markets.Kan added he expects
Bank of Japan to take action ‚Äúswiftly,‚ÄĚ noting he will speak with BoJ Governor
Shirakawa after he returns from the U.S.BoJ‚Äôs Policy Board is scheduled to meet on 6-7 September and there is
talk the central bank may meet earlier, leading to speculation policymakers may
enact and implement additional monetary easing.Even if Japan does not conduct yen-selling intervention, it is likely
the government will force the BoJ to expand monetary policy further.Prime Minister Kan is under pressure to
implement more policies to improve the Japanese economy, especially ahead of
next week‚Äôs election within the ruling Democratic Party of Japan.An outline of stimulus measures is expected
to be released by 31 August.Japanese
monetary authorities have not officially intervened in the foreign exchange
market since March 2004.Data released
in Japan overnight saw the July jobless rate tick lower to 5.2% from 5.3% in
June while July overall household spending climbed 1.1% y/y.On the inflation front, July national
consumer price inflation was off 0.9% y/y at the headline level and off 1.5%
y/y at the ex-food, energy level.August
Tokyo-area consumer price inflation narrowed to -1.0% y/y at the headline level
and -1.4% y/y at the ex-food, energy level.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.69% to close at ¬•8,906.48.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•84.60
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•108.85 level and was supported around the ¬•106.95 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•132.55 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7980 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7996. Data released in China overnight saw the
August MNI business conditions survey narrow to 62.16 from 64.94.Money market rates increased the most in two
months ahead of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China‚Äôs bond sale.Sources indicate Chinese officials convened
recently and it is ‚Äúvery unlikely‚ÄĚ People‚Äôs Bank of China will raise interest
rates this year.PBoC adviser Xia Bin
reported China will not relax its 2010 lending target of CNY 7.5 trillion.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5440 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5540 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q2 gross
domestic product up 1.2% q/q and 1.7% y/y, stronger-than-expected on higher private
consumption.Q2 total business
investment was off 1.6% q/q and up 1.9% y/y.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Weale this week warned
the U.K. economy faces a ‚Äúsignificant‚ÄĚ risk of falling into a double-dip
recession.Mortgage lending has tumbled
18.5% in the U.K. over the past year yet inflation remains significantly
elevated and may require official higher rates from the central bank.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8230 level and was supported around the
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0305 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0220 level. Swiss National Bank member Jordan today said
he supports a capital surcharge for large banks, adding it is ‚Äúcrucial‚ÄĚ to have
more and better capital.SNB Chairman
Hildebrand this week reiterated economic uncertainty remains elevated and said
the central bank‚Äôs balance sheet has risks.Data released in Switzerland saw the August KOF Swiss leading indicator
tick lower to 2.18.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3120 level
while the British pound moved higher
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.5990 level.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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