Monday August 30, 2010 - 03:40:52 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Aug-2010 - 0338 GMT
The US Equities rallied on Friday but ewre still lower than last week's close. The Dow (10150.65) was down 0.62% and the S&P 500 (10164.59) was down 0.66% last week. The bounce from 9985, last Friday, further strengthens our view of a strong Support at 10000, which may not be broken in the coming weeks.
All Asians are trading higher today. The comforting words from Bernanke coupled with expectations of BOJ's intervention over stronger Yen has resulted in overall investor confidence. The Nikkei (9270.52, up 3.11%) has held on to its Support at 9000 and may move up toward 9500, while above 9000 in the coming days. The Shanghai (2646.13, up 1.36%) may fall towards 2500-450 while below 2700 in the coming days. In India, the Sensex (17998.41) was down 2.19% and the Nifty (5408.7) was down 2.20% last week. We may now see the markets come down towards 17500 in the coming days.
Crude (75.41) has risen sharply on Friday and is now trading above 75. Statement from the Fed Chairman that the Fed would take necessary action on economic growth if needed, triggered a rise in the US equity makets on Friday which supported the rise in the Crude price. Immediate Resistance is seen in 76.70-90 region, a test of which is looking likely in the coming days and a break above it might increase the chances of a rise once again towards 80. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1236.10) is consolidating between 1230-45 over the last few days within its overall uptrend. 1250 is a very important Resistance level to watch for and a strong break above it might take it further up towards 1275 which is the next significant Resistance seen above 1250.
Strong rise in Dollar-Yen (85.87) on intervention fears since Friday. Has broken the downtrend since the 92.88 high of 04-June. Might now target next resistance near 86.50. Weakness in the Yen has translated into a bounce in the Aussie (0.9015). In fact, the Aussie had gained on Friday itself, rising from last week's low of 0.8767, to close well above the 200-day MA at 0.8939. The Euro-Yen Cross (109.48) has, understandably, shot up and might rise further towards 110.25-111.25.
Remember that the Yen had strengthened to a 15-year high of 83.59 last Tuesday and had come dangerously close to testing the 1995 all-time-strong level 79.80. Some action from the MOF/ BOJ was in order, therefore. However, any fresh turbulence in the world markets, or any bad news about growth, will lead to fresh strength in the Yen.
The Euro (1.2749) might be a little mixed now between 1.2850 on the upside and 1.2650 on the downside. The Pound (1.5545) too is likely to be mixed between 1.57 on the upside and 1.5350 on the downside this week. Trade is likely to be erratic, as the major focus might be on the Yen. Of course, both the Euro and then Pound may get support while the Yen weakens. Dollar-Swiss (1.0305) has gained over the last couple of days, with the Swissy weakening alongwith the Yen, but there is intra-day Resistance at 1.0315 just overhead.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1186.90) and Sing Dollar (1.3530) are trading a little stronger today. The rise in the Dow on Friday and the good showing on stocks in Asia today, alongwith the weakening in the Yen, are possible reasons for the relative strength in these Asian currencies today. Dollar-Rupee (Friday closing 46.89) might dip a little to 46.83, where there is an important intra-day Support. Further downward pressure cannot be ruled out if 46.83 breaks. Let us see how that behaves.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The 2Y yields were up 1 bps at 0.53% and 10Y yields were up 16 bps at 2.64% respectively.
The 10Y cash JGBs jumped to 1.070% today.
09:00 GMT EU Biz Climate
...Expected 101.6...Previous 101.3
12:30 GMT US Aug Personal Income
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.0%
12:30 GMT US Aug PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.4%...Previous 0.0%
India's Q1 GDP data release is due tomorrow (31-Aug-10) and the expectation is 8.8%.
...Actual 5.2%...Previous 5.3%
US GDP Q2 '10 (Pre)
...Actual 1.6%...Previous 2.4%
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