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Economics Weekly - US payrolls to test market nerves - again

Economics Weekly 30 August 2010

 

US payrolls to test market nerves - again

 

After a recent lull, this week’s UK calendar mainly features ‘second tier’ economic data. Highlights include bank lending figures and the Nationwide’s house price index, as well as the various PMI surveys. Mortgage and consumer credit data have been fairly static over the past three months and there is little to suggest a change in July, as consumers remain cautious and keep borrowing levels down. This partly reflects an uncertain outlook for the housing market, which after a strong run in 2009 and early 2010, has begun to show signs of weakness again. We expect August’s Nationwide figures to underline this with a 0.5% m/m fall in prices. Finally, we look for a small drop in the manufacturing and services PMI although both are expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

 

The US data calendar could hardly be busier. Top of the bill come August’s non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment. This theme is likely to feature in Tuesday’s FOMC minutes. The latter will also be watched for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS. Beyond this, the latest ISM surveys will be published, with August’s manufacturing survey attracting particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0. This week also sees the release of Conference Board consumer sentiment. Finally, after a wave of poor US housing market data, a decline in annual house price inflation is expected in Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data.

 

In the eurozone, we look for the ECB’s refinancing rate to stay at 1%, although the meeting is likely to be more notable for the new staff economic projections and the decision on whether to extend its 3-month unlimited liquidity operation beyond the end of September. In terms of data - in contrast to the US – euro

area survey indicators broadly continue to surprise on the upside, bolstered by healthy demand for exports. We expect the Commission’s economic sentiment reading to improve to 101.7, from 101.3 previously. Final euro area PMI data are also published. Meanwhile, we look for an unchanged outturn of +1.0% quarter-on-quarter for eurozone Q2 GDP, with the recent upward revision to Spanish GDP to - 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from -0.2% previously having only a limited impact. Other data this week include the ‘flash’ estimate of eurozone CPI inflation for August, where our forecast stands at 1.6%.

 

In emerging markets, a number of countries release Q2 GDP reports. Economic growth is forecast to have moderated in India and Brazil, albeit at 8.9% and 7.6% year-on-year. Furthermore, despite some recent softening in monthly surveys, strong domestic demand is expected to prompt further interest rate hikes in

both countries. Elsewhere, we look for the Polish economy to have grown by 3.3% year-on-year in Q2. Australia and Canada also publish Q2 national accounts, with exports and government spending expected to have been key drivers of growth during the quarter. That said, while Canadian GDP is forecast to have moderated from 6.1% quarterly annualised growth in Q1 to 3.3% in Q2, we look for an acceleration in Australian quarterly growth to 1% (up from 0.5% previously), reflecting a surge in public sector investment.

 

Economic Research

 

 

Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research, 10 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7AE, Switchboard: 0207 626 1500. www.lloydstsbcorporatemarkets.com Bloomberg: LLOY<GO>

 

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