***Economic data*** - (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.9%e - (US) July Personal Income: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Personal Spending: 0.4% v 0.3%e - 8:30 (US) July PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e - (CA) Canada Q2 Current Account (BOP): -C$11.0B v -C$10.7Be - (CA) Canada July Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 1.8% v 0.2%e - (SA) South Africa July Budget (ZAR) -31.7B v 8.9B prior - (CL) Chile July Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.0%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 2.7%e - (CL) Chile July Total Copper Production: 454.2K tons v 465.0K tons prior - (US) Aug Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -13.5 v -10.0e
Fixed Income: - (PD) Poland MOF: Sold PLN550.7M in 52-Week Bills versus â‚¬500-700M indicated range; avg yield 3.939% v 3.946% prior; Bid-to-cover 4.7x v 3.45x prior - (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) Bill Auction Results: Sold approx â‚¬9.0B in 7, 12, 25 and 51-week Bills versus â‚¬9.0B indicated
- Major US indices are losing some ground in the early going but volumes remain light. Overall investor risk aversion is still an ongoing theme with European sovereign debt spreads continuing to get wider. Treasury prices have stabilized and are drifting higher which has pushed the 10-year yield back below 2.6%. Oil is trending lower by more than 1% back below $75.
- M&A data continues to boost select names today. GENZ reaffirmed its rejection of Sanofi's $69/shr bid and promptly rose above $70 despite Sanofi's pledge to proceed cautiously with any additional offer. COGT agreed to a 20% premium offer to be acquired by MMM. 3PAR traded off 2% as it awaits Dell's response to HPQ's latest offer at $30/shr in cash for the secure storage specialist.
- In the meantime, HPQ said it would use some of its additional cash for a $10B buyback program, including $3B in Q4. HPQ shares rose 3% on the news. After dipping on Friday, DGIT announced reduced Q3 guidance and dropped another 35%.
- NY morning initial saw little reaction to the US personal income and spending data and but maintained a steady tone. Liquidity conditions were thin with UK banks on holiday. The safe-haven flows built up momentum by mid-morning with the greenback, CHF and JPY maintaining a firmer tone against other European pairs. Spot gold was not participating as of yet but remained above the $1,230 level, some $60 away from fresh-all-time highs. Commodity currencies reflecting the risk aversion jitters with both AUD and CAD pairs weaker from their respective opening levels seen in Asia.
**Looking Ahead** - (IC) Iceland Q2 Current Account (ISK): No est v -27.0B prior - (US) Fed's Bullard - (AR) Argentina July Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 19.0% prior - (MX) Mexico July YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -101.71B prior
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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