The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2670
level and was capped around the $1.2765 level.Todayâ€™s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
$1.3335 â€“ 1.2580 range.Liquidity was
reduced on account of the Bank holiday in the U.K. and market holidays
elsewhere.The media reported the
European Central Bank will likely extend its emergency aid program for the
banking system into 2011.There is
increasing speculation the U.S. economy is heading toward a double dip
recession that could dim Europeâ€™s economic recovery.Data released in the eurozone today saw the
EMU-16 August business climate indicator tick lower to 0.61 from the revised
print of 0.63 while August consumer confidence improved to -11 from from the
prior reading of -12.August industrial
confidence was unchanged at -4 and August services confidence ticked higher to
+7.Data to be released in the eurozone
tomorrow include the EMU-16 flash August estimate and the EMU-16 July
unemployment rate.In U.S. news, data released today saw July personal income up 0.2%
while July personal spending came in at +0.4%, more-than-expected and up from
the prior reading of 0.0%.Also, the
July PCE deflator was up 1.5% y/y and July core PCE was up 0.1% m/m and 1.4%
y/y.Finally, the Dallas Fedâ€™s August
manufacturing activity index improved to -13.5.Data to be released in the U.S. tomorrow include the August Chicago PMI
survey, August consumer confidence, and June CaseShiller home prices data.Minutes from the Federal Open Market
Committeeâ€™s 10 August meeting will also be released tomorrow and closely
scrutinized given the Fedâ€™s decision to reinvest maturing mortgage-backed
securities proceeds into the U.S. Treasury market.Dealers are still talking about Fed Chairman
Bernankeâ€™s comments on Friday regarding how the Fed could ease policy further
if required including shifting the composition of its bond reinvestment
strategy.Euro offers are cited
around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ84.55
level and was capped around the ÂĄ85.90 level. The pair briefly traded above the
ÂĄ85.80 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the ÂĄ92.85 â€“ 83.60
range.As expected by many Bank of
Japan-watchers, the central bank held an emergency Policy Board meeting and
expanded its bank lending program â€“ the first time it has added new monetary
stimulus since March.BoJ is increasing
the amount of funds in the facility by ÂĄ10 trillion to a total of ÂĄ30
trillion.BoJ Governor Shirakawa
indicated the central bank is poised to take more action if required and cited â€śdownside
risksâ€ť to Japanâ€™s ongoing economic recovery.Shirakawa left the Fedâ€™s Jackson Hole symposium early to attend the meeting
in Tokyo amid increasing pressure from the government to enact more monetary
easing.More traders, however, are
speculating the change in policy will not have a major impact on the economy or
on the yen.Vice finance minister Ikeda
welcomed the central bankâ€™s â€śswift response.â€ťThere is no indication that Japanese monetary authorities are any closer
to conducting unilateral yen-selling intervention than they were last
week.Consumer prices have been on the
decline for seventeen months, household spending remains weak, and gross
domestic product growth is decelerating.Former BoJ Policy Board member Nakahara said the central bankâ€™s easing
today is â€śtoo little and too lateâ€ť and argued they are â€śmeaningless and canâ€™t
stop the yenâ€™s advance.â€ťNakahara added â€śLowering
the policy rate to zero is a must to stem the yenâ€™s gains.The BoJ should also boost outright purchases
of bonds by another ÂĄ500 billion.Increased bond purchases would enable the government to generate funds
for more public works spending.As a
whole, Japan canâ€™t live without spending by companies and the government.â€ťPrime Minister Kan reported he will consider
a supplementary budget if necessary.Data
to be released in Japan overnight include July industrial production and July
retail trade.The Nikkei 225 stock index
climbed 1.76% to close at ÂĄ9,149.26.U.S.
dollar bids are cited around the ÂĄ84.60 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ÂĄ107.25 level and was capped around the ÂĄ109.55 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ130.95 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ82.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8033 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7980. Data to be released in China Wednesday include
August PMI manufacturing numbers followed by August PMI services data on
Friday.The yen fell significantly after
a rumour circulated that Peopleâ€™s Bank of Governor Zhou may have defected on
account of a possible US$ 430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bond holdings. The rumours likely represent a power struggle within
the Communist Party.PBoC adviser Xia
Bin called for a floating interest rate mechanism for bank deposits and noted
economic growth is expected to slow this year.
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5455 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5575 level. Data released in the U.K. last night saw the
August Hometrack housing survey off 0.3% m/m and up 1.5% y/y.Data to be released in the U.K. tonight include
the GfK August consumer confidence survey and it is expected to print around
-24.Net consumer credit and mortgage
lending data will be released tomorrow.Bank
of England Chief Economist Bean spoke at Jackson Hole and said â€śThe
deleveraging process is incomplete, the recovery remains fragile, and a
considerable margin of spare capacity is yet to be worked off, while further
policy action may yet be necessary to keep the recovery on track.â€ťCable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385
level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8160 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8215
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0235 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0310 level. Swiss National Bank member Jordan said the
central bank is closely monitoring the Swiss franc â€śvery closelyâ€ť and said
Switzerlandâ€™s monetary policy situation remains â€śvery complex.â€ťJordan also cited a â€śsmallâ€ť short-term risk of
deflation.Some traders believe SNB may
be forced to resume its franc-selling intervention to stop the euroâ€™s sharp
decline on the cross.The July UBS
consumption indicator will be released tomorrow followed by August PMI on
Wednesday, Q2 GDP and July retail sales on Thursday, and August consumer price
inflation on Friday.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.2980 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5840 level.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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