The U.S. Dollar traded higher against most major currencies
on Monday. The falling stock market contributed to the selling pressure in the
higher-yielding currencies while a move to weaken the Japanese Yen triggered
the opposite reaction by traders.
stocks extended losses throughout the session after the release of U.S.
income and consumption data showed meager advances in income and consumer
spending. Increased M & A activity and a stock buyback by HP also failed to
generate any interest in the long side of the market.
Some traders believe that Fridayâ€™s U.S. Employment report is
the problem. Investors may be staying on the sidelines worried about it. This
monthâ€™s jobs report has taken on added importance following a summer of weak
housing and consumer data. What it is basically coming down to is the thought
that if there are no jobs, there will be no recovery.
The EUR USD felt pressure after failing to rally following a
test of a 50% level at 1.2754. The key area to watch is 1.2605 to 1.2687. A
break through this zone will reaffirm the downtrend and likely trigger an
acceleration to the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2433.
The European Central Bank will make its latest interest rate
decision on Sept. 2. It is expected to say the same thing the Federal Reserve
has been saying, expect more economic uncertainty and that the road to economic
recovery will remain bumping.
The GBP USD is trading lower and in the middle of nowhere on
the daily chart. Itâ€™s hard to describe what traders are trying to do based on
the current chart pattern. What is clear, however, is that a break through the
recent low at 1.5371 is likely to trigger a break all the way down to the major
50% price level at 1.5113.
The biggest concern among British Pound investors at this
time is whether the economy can withstand the jolt from new taxes and financial
The big news story today involved the Japanese Yen. Early in
the trading session, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its
current 20 trillion Yen quantitative easing program to six months from its
current three-month time frame. At the same time it increased the amount of
funds available by 10 trillion Yen.
The BoJ expected this action to weaken the Yen instead it
was the USD JPY that traded sharply lower. Traders reacted as if they had
expected the move or were waiting for something more intense.
Last night the Dollar/Yen stopped just short of turning the
main trend on the daily chart to up with a move through 85.91. The subsequent
break identifies the significance of this price level
Falling demand for higher risk assets pressured the
commodity and risk-linked Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. Both markets
resumed their downtrends after three day short-covering rallies.
The rally in the Australian Dollar ended inside of a
short-term retracement zone at .8995 to .9049. If equities continue to weaken,
then look for the start of a correction to .8644.
Thin trading conditions can lead to excessive volatility
this week. U.S.
employment will be the catalyst this week, starting with Wednesdayâ€™s ADP
Employment Change, followed by Thursdayâ€™s Weekly Initial Claims. Finally, on
Friday, the U.S.
reports Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Preliminary guesses are
for NFP to show a loss of 106K to 120K jobs. The unemployment rate is expected
to come in at 9.6%.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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