E-mini S&P 500 Holds 1037.00 Overnight; Is This the Line in the Sand?
The September E-mini S&P 500 made another successful
test of last weekâ€™s low at 1037.00, indicating either fresh buying by bottom
pickers or fear over selling in the hole and getting trapped in a
Technically, despite holding the bottom at 1037.00 (which is
horizontal support), the market pierced an uptrending Gann angle (which is
diagonal support) at 1042.75. So while it looks as if buyers are defending last
weekâ€™s low at 1037.00, the structure of the chart pattern suggests that sellers
are trying to weaken the foundation. If selling begins to accelerate, then the
next downside target is 1022.75.
Light volume continues to plague the market as many traders
have taken an extended summer vacation ahead of the Labor Day week-end. At this
time itâ€™s difficult to say whether fresh buyers are actually stepping in to buy
the dips or if enough large bids are being placed just to hold the S&P
market up until either Fridayâ€™s employment report or until traders return next
On the upside, should an intraday support base be build,
then look for a possible rally into a downtrending Gann angle at 1055.75. Letâ€™s
get there first before we start to worry about it.
German Employment Data Better than Guess
It seems weâ€™ve hit that point in the economic cycle where
traders celebrate the quality of the analyst guess. We saw it last week when
U.S. GDP fell to 1.6% but stocks rallied initially because the pre-report guess
was 1.3%. This morning the Euro is rallying because Germanyâ€™s federal labor office said
the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed workers fell by 17,000 in August.
Economists had forecast a decrease of 20,000 in the number of people without
I suppose you can build a case for calling this report a
steady improvement in the labor market which suggests that the German economy
is improving but at a slower pace.
Actually when a market rallies because the report was better
than the pre-report estimate, it doesnâ€™t necessarily always mean new buyers
came in. Many times investors are merely adjusting their positions triggering a
short-covering rally. To professional traders itâ€™s not always about being right
or wrong about the market as much as it is having the right size on in order to
manage the risk.
On the better than expected news this morning the September
Euro rallied, triggering a short-covering rally in front of the previous main
bottom at 1.2587. Last nightâ€™s sell-off created a swing top at 1.2779, helping to
form a minor range of 1.2587 to 1.2779. The main trend will turn to up on a
trade through 1.2779. The downtrend will resume on a trade through 1.2587.
In the bigger picture, the main range is 1.1876 to 1.3334.
This range has created a major retracement zone at 1.2605 to 1.2433. The charts
indicate that a failure to hold the 50% level at 1.2605 should trigger a break
to the .618 retracement price at 1.2433. An uptrending Gann angle at 1.2486
could slow down the rate of the descent should this market find selling
Itâ€™s a little premature to talk about the long-side of the
Euro if you are a trend-trader until 1.2779 is taken out. If this occurs then
the first upside target will be 1.2961 to 1.3049. Counter-trend traders may
have stepped into the long-side this morning. The general rule for
counter-trend traders is â€śfind an exit first before enteringâ€ť, and based on
this morningâ€™s activity, this exit may have been identified as 1.2587.
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