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Tuesday August 31, 2010 - 15:08:07 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Tuesday, August 31, 2010 11:03:51 AM

 US Market Update

DOW +45 S&P 500 +5 Nasdaq +2

***Economic data***
- (IS) Israel Q2 Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 7.2% prior
- (BE) Belgium July Budget Balance (YTD): -€6.9B v -€10.0B prior
- (EU) ECB drained €61.0B in 7-day Term Deposit Tender vs. €61.0B
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Aug 28th: +0.1% w/w; +2.8% y/y
- (SA) South Africa July Trade Balance (ZAR): 2.0B v 0.0Be
- (BR) Brazil July Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.7% v 9.5%e
- (CA) Canada Jun Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Q2 GDP Annualized: 2.0% v 2.5%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Aug 28th: +2.8% y/y; MTD: +1.0% v July
- (CL) Chile July Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.5%e
- (US) Jun S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.5%e; Home Price Index: 147.97 v 146.47 prior; (US) Q2 Home Price Index: 138.0 v 131.8 prior; HPI Y/Y: 3.6% v 2.3% prior
- (US) Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager: 56.7 v 57.0e
- (US) Aug Consumer Confidence: 53.5 v 50.7e

- (US) Aug
NAPM-Milwaukee: 59.0 v 60.3e

- Yesterday's steady downwards slide in equities continued through trading in the Asian session, especially in the Nikkei, before bottoming out in European trading. The strong showing in the August US consumer confidence data has swept away the risk aversion, sending US stocks higher this morning even as the key new orders subcomponents in the Chicago PMI fell sharply. Now traders have three days of August US employment data to look forward to, none of which is expected to provide a great deal of confidence. The FDIC released its Q2 troubled bank list this morning, increasing the number of institutions on the list by 7%, although this is the smallest sequential gain in the list in over a year. The FDIC's Bair stated that there is more evidence banking is moving along the road to recovery and said the FDIC is not forecasting a double dip recession. December gold made fresh eight-week highs earlier in the session. Front month crude is trading just above $74.

- Monsanto trimmed its 2010 earnings outlook again this morning. The company offered no explanation for the cut, although it has already reduced 2010 guidance once this year due to pressure in sales of Roundup products. Monsanto called Q4 "solid" and said quarterly seed and trait sales in
Latin America and other international markets were "strong." MON is down 5%. Heinz offered firm guidance for its Q1 results and reiterated its 2011 outlook. M&A continues to be a major theme. Shares of Saks are up more than 20% on unconfirmed reports that a consortium of private equity names would take out the luxury retailer for around $11/shr. Lions Gate is up more than 10% after Carl Ichan raised his longstanding tender offer for the firm.

- This morning's equity market gains have provided a reprieve for the JPY in most pairs. USD/JPY remains well below the 85 handle while EUR/JPY was back in positive territory and in the mid-107 handle. EUR/CHF cross drifted away from its all-time lows of 1.2899 tested earlier in
Europe. Swiss Franc strength is making traders note possible side-effects in the central European region (Hungary, Poland and Turkey) on carry-related trades. CAD was in focus during the NY morning following the release of the Canadian GDP data. Dealers have noted good two-way flows in commodity-related pairs in session as a result. The 1.0670 level had been prior resistance in USD/CAD pair since early July and proved tough to penetrate again. European dealers have noted there has been talk of 'decent' size selling interest of AUD and CAD pairs at the 4pm London fix in recent days while North American desks noted a large round of profit taking seen following the Canadian data.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia July Unemployment Rate: 12.6%e v 12.8% prior
- 14:00 (US) Minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 10.1% prior
- 16:30 (US) API weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 29th: No est v -44 prior
- 21:00 (CH) China Aug PMI Manufacturing: 51.1e v 51.2 prior
- 23:00 (CH) China Government to sell CNY28B in 20-Year Bonds



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