European Market Update: Risk Appetite recovers in session (TTN)
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
European Market Update: Risk Appetite recovers in session
***Economic Data*** - (RU) Russia Aug Reserve Fund: $ v $40.6B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $ v $88.2B prior - (PE) Peru Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: % v 0.3%e v 0.4% prior - (CZ) Czech Aug Budget Balance (CZK): v -69.0B prior - (IR) Ireland Aug Consumer Confidence: v 66.2 prior - (IN) India Trade Balance: -$12.9B v -$10.5B prior; Exports Y/Y: 13.2% v 30.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 34.3% v 23.0% prior - (GE) Germany July Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2%e - (SW) Sweden Aug Swedbank PMI Survey: 60.6 v 64.0e - (AU) Australia Aug RBA Commodity Index Y/Y: 52.7 v 52.4% prior - (HU) Hungary Jun Final Trade Balance: â‚¬563.9M v â‚¬566.9M prelim - (IR) Ireland Aug NCB Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 51.4 prior; Lowest reading since Feb - (HU) Hungary Aug PMI: 51.9 v 53.5 prior - (TU) Turkey Aug Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 52.8 prior - (PD) Poland Aug Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 v 52.1 prior; Highest reading since June 2006 - (NO) Norway Aug PMI: 49.2 v 54.0e; Lowest reading since Dec 2009 - (SP) Spain Aug Manufacturing PMI 51.2 v 51.6 prior - (SW) Sweden Q2 Current Account (SEK): 51.3B v 63.6B prior - (SZ) Swiss Aug SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 61.4 v 65.8e - (CZ) Czech Aug Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 56.8 prior - (DE) Denmark July Retail Sales M/M: +0.3% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v 0.2% prior - (IT) Italy Aug PMI Manufacturing: 52.8 v 53.5e; Lowest reading since Feb 2010 - (FR) France Aug Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 54.7 prelim; Three month high - (GE) Germany Aug Final PMI Manufacturing: 58.2 v 58.2e; Lowest reading since Feb - (EU) Euro Zone Aug Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 55.0e - (GR) Greece Aug Manufacturing PMI: 43.0 v 45.3 prior - (IT) Italy July Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5% prior - (UK) Aug PMI Manufacturing: 54.3 v 57.0e - (SA) South Africa Aug Kagiso PMI: 50.3 v 50.2e - (DE) Denmark Aug PMI Survey: 53.7 v 51.3 prior - (EU) ECB alloted $60M in 7-day liquidity operation at fixed 1.19% - (SW) Sweden Debt Agency sold SEK2.5B in 4.5% 2015 Bonds; avg yield 1.833% - (UK) DMO sold Â£1.0B in 4.75% 2038 Gilts; avg yield 3.837% v 4.444% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.56x v 2.0x prior (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) Bill auction results to sell up to â‚¬1.0B in Bills - Sold â‚¬500M in 6-month Bills; avg yield 2.045% v 1.947% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x v 1.8x prior - Sold â‚¬512M in 12-month Bills; avg yield 2.770% v 2.727% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 1.8x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Equities: - As of 5:35am ET (9:30 GMT) Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.1% at 2,651; DAX Index +0.8% at 5,975; CAC-40 Index +1.5% at 3,542 and FTSE 100 Index +1.5% at 5,305
- Vivendi [VIV.FR] traded higher by 3% as company reported improving results and raised its FY forecasts and expected a revenue growth of 34%. Company pledged to maintain its dividend of â‚¬1.4 in 2011 and 2012 and expected its Brazilian telecoms unit GVT to continue to grow in 2011 and beyond. Vivendi boosted telecom sector during the session. In other French names, Wendel Investissement [MF.FR] swung to profit after a loss last year and reported improving revenues over the year. Shares opened higher by 2.1%. - Dutch name Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NV] traded higher by 2% after the announcement that it was to become the primary paint supplier to Walmart. Company will develop and manufacture a portfolio of interior and exterior paints for more than 3.5K Walmart stores. - British Petroleum [BP.UK] announced the sale of its Malaysian Petrochemical interests to Petronas for $363M in cash
Speakers: - Spain PM Zapatero commented that China had increased holding of Spanish govt bonds and would continue to do so. The PM stressed that investment in Spanish bonds were safe and provided good returns. He did concede that the decision of whether or not to increase Spanish bond positions depended on China. Lastly he added that the interest payments on Spain's govt debt accounted for 2% of GDP. - Sweden's Think Tank NIESR raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 4.3% from 3.7% prior and also raises its 2011 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 3.0% prior June view. It now saw the central bank's Repo Rate at 1.00% level by end of 2010 vs. 0.75% in June forecast. It saw the key rate at 1.75% by 2011 year end and at 2.75% by 2012 year end - VDMA industry association: July Engineering Orders Y/Y: +48% v 62.0% prior - Germany's Economy Ministry commented that it expected a strongly revised 2010 GDP forecast - Reportedly German Cabinet approved planned austerity measures with â‚¬80B in spending cuts through 2014 - July US Small Business loan accounts behind more than 30 days: 2.98% v 3.06% m/m; small business lending index: +2% y/y; Loan accounts behind more than 180 days: 0.85% v 0.89% m/m - Paynet - Japan's MOF's Ikeda commented that the next fiscal year budget (FY11/12) total Â¥96.7T that including special economic framework steps total just under Â¥3T . This was in line with Japanese press pres speculation that FY11 budget requests hit a record of over Â¥96T. - Thailand Fin Min Korn: Cannot expect Thailand exports to keep growing; Baht currency at 30 per USD is a "Strong Psychological Level"
- Currencies/Fixed Income: - European markets shrugged off mixed PMI Manufacturing data and took comfort in the Spain's PM comments that China would continue to support the Euro Zone and its Gov't bonds. This aided to the session's risk appetite following the Chinese better PMI readings earlier. EUR/USD climbed over 100 pips towards 1.28 level on talk of decent buying by Far East names. The GBP/USD stumbled to test below 1.5345 level after its softer PMI reading but recovered on the back of a recovery in European equity prices.
- In the Papers-Geopolitical: - The Telegraph's Business editor Evans-Pritchard commented on the rebound in the British August GfK consumer confidence data. He said the increase in August broke a steady downtrend which had been seen since February, however, GfK said one should not read too much into the data, as the index had been at very low levels and the Aug gain only reverses the sharp decline seen in July and the index is still near levels seen during the credit crisis. - In the Wall Street Journal, it was reported that ECB's Weber was no longer a 'shoo-in' to replace Trichet as the next ECB president. It was criticized that Weber's purchase of government debt of periphery EU nations resulted in tensions with other members. Note that Trichet's term to end in October 2011, and official process for replacement to begin in early 2011. - It was reported the German Cabinet approved planned austerity measures with â‚¬80 billion in spending cuts through 2014, with about â‚¬11 billion schedules to be cut from next year's budget. The nuclear fuel tax was not included in the bill. This compares with the prior reports where the German Cabinet reportedly agreed upon austerity measures, and sought to reduce its structural deficit by approx â‚¬11B in 2011.
***Notes/Observations*** - Nikkei climbs off 16-mth lows aided by China PMI - Spain PM says China will continue to purchase its gov't bonds - Australia: Q2 GDP above estimates and at its fastest pace in 3 years - European PMI Manufacturing data mixed
***Looking Ahead*** - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Aug Live Registry Monthly Change: No est v 8.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 13.7% - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK7.0B in 3.4% Sept 2015 bonds - 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell Zero-Coupon Bonds - 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell Up to RUB35.0B in OFZ Bonds - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 27th: No est v 4.9% prior - 7:30 (US) Aug Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v -57.2% prior - 8:00 (RU) Russia to Sell Up to RUB40.0B in OFZ Bonds - 8:15 (US) Aug ADP Employment Change: +15Ke v +42K prior (Range of analyst estimates from -80K to +55K) - 9:00 (BR) Brazil Aug PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.8 prior - 10:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Trade Balance: $3.0Be v $13.5B prior; Exports: $19.1Be v $17.7B prior; Imports: $16.1Be v $16.3B prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey - 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Remittances: $1.9Be v $1.9B prior - 10:00 (US) Aug ISM Manufacturing: 52.8e v 55.5 prior; Prices Paid: 55.3e v 57.5 prior - 10:00 (US) July Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v 0.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories: Crude:+1Me; Gasoline: -250Ke; Distillate: +1Me; Utilization: 87.7%e - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds - 12:00 (IT) Aug New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -26.0% prior - 14:00 (IT) Aug Budget Balance: no est v 2.7B prior; Budget Balance (YTD) No est v -43.1B prior - 17:00 (US) Aug Domestic Vehicle Sales: 8.85Me v 9.11M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 11.65Me v 11.56M prior (revised) - (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest rate Decision: Expected to maintain the SELIC Target Rate Unchanged at the current level of 10.75%
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