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Wednesday April 6, 2005 - 12:34:24 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 06/04/05.......1156 GMT

Euro @ 1.2870/73.....Indecisive right now
------------------------------------------
R: 1.2904-14 / 1.2949
S: 1.2851-45 / 1.2805
The Euro tested a long term Trendline Support (coming up from Mar-02) on the Weekly Candles yesterday, but did not break it. Strictly speaking, therefore, the 3-year uptrend is still intact. On the other hand, there is a big Double Top on the Daily/ Weekly charts with 1.2731-2800 as a Neckline Support. The danger is that this neckline will break over the course of this month as we draw closer to the next FOMC meet in May.

In the here and now, the immediate Resistance is between 1.2904-14 and Support between 1.2851-45. Should these break, we may either see a rise towards 1.2960-70 or a fall towards 1.2805, respectively.

One idea would be to try and buy on a dip towards 1.2814 with a SL below 1.2770. TP 70-100 points higher.


$-Yen @ 108.51/55.....Want to exit Short
-----------------------------------------
R: 108.65-72-84-96
S: 108.35 / 108.07 / 107.86
The Dollar has bounced well from an intra-day low of 107.86 and might have potential to move up towards 108.65 or higher. Thereafter, it could move sideways between 107.70-109.00 for another day or two, while deciding whether to move past 109 towards 110 or to fall down towards 107. This might be a good to either stay out of the market or to try and trade the range.

We would like to stay out and want to exit the Short entered at 108.24

Holding:
$25K Short at 108.24. Exit the position either at 108.60 (Stop Loss) or at 108.30 (Stop Loss), whichever is seen earlier.


Euro-Yen @ 139.68/73.....May see 140.30 by tomorrow
---------------------------------------------------
R: 139.75-89 / 140.40
S: 139.50 / 138.90
Unfortunately, our Long (139.14) was stopped out at 138.90 (the Low of of the day) and the Cross jumped up after that. A further upmove today has a 50% chance, but the chances of a further upmvoe towards 140.30-40 improve to 70% if we expand the timeframe to tomorrow. Support at 138.90 may hold.


$-Swiss @ 1.2042/7....Holding unambitious Short
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2063-82 / 1.2118 / 1.2146
S: 1.2010 / 1.1987-68 / 1.1943
We've sold in the morning on the idea that a dip towards 1.1990-70 is possible before fresh Longs can be taken. The other possibility is that market will just fool around between 1.2010-2110 for a day or two, while deciding whether it has finally broken the 200-day MA (currently 1.2070) or not.

Holding:
$25K Short at 1.2035, SL 1.2072, TP 1.2000 (up from 1.1995)


Cable @ 1.8790/5.....Anaemic? Probably ranged
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.8838-55 / 1.8899-1.8917
S: 1.8785-74 / 1.8720 / 1.8676
The Cable has underperformed so far today, not even rising to 1.8860. Is it anaemic and thus vulnerable to a fall towards 1.8690 or just ranged between 1.8720-8860? Probably the latter possibility.


Happy Trading!

 

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