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Wednesday September 1, 2010 - 10:11:12 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 01/09/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis September 01,
Mondayâ€™s headline for the EURUSD was â€śSlowly rising,
signaling weaknessâ€ť, and the Euro listened, and kept on falling from the weekly
open, losing more than 140 pips from yesterdayâ€™s Asian session high. And with
this drop, the pair broke our support 1.2643 only to disappoint and drop less
than 20 pips below it. But the surprise came yesterday just after the NY open,
when the Euro bounced and jumped from its 5-day low at 1.2624, to 1.2741. This
surprising jump could mean that the single currency has not given up yet, and
that it will try to overcome a negative outlook. Short term resistance is at
1.2792, and breaking it will mean that it is able of achieving more games. The
targets will be 1.2871 & 1.2959. The support is at 1.2684, and if broken,
the drop will be resumed to the attractive 1.2550, and later to the all
â€˘ 1.2684: Fibonacci 61.8% short
â€˘ 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows.
1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to
â€˘ 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
â€˘ 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 4-month high of
â€˘ 1.2595: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 4-month high of
Dollar/Yen traded below
the 84 level for a short while, then jumped to around 84.60 and consolidated
above 84. This is probably just a short break, and once it is over, we expect
the Yenâ€™s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on
the short term. We have noticed an ideal (Dark Cloud Cover) candle pattern on
the daily chart (please refer to the attached chart), and this is a well known
bearish pattern which promises more excitement as we drop lower & lower,
especially after the BoJ disappointing the markets yesterday, and the â€śJapsâ€ť
saying that they are â€śwatching the currency movement closelyâ€ť! The market has
had it with such statements, the â€śjapsâ€ť now will have to take a seat and watch
the spectacular Yen show against the Dollar & the Euro. Short term support
is at 84.11, if broken, we will be on the way to our long awaited target 82.50,
and may be later we will test the psychological level 80.00, given enough time.
On the other hand, it is hard now to imagine the Dollar beating the 84.88
resistance, But if it does, it will be violent in the face of those who believe
in the Yen, and will shoot to 86.25 & may be
â€˘ 84.11: the rising trend line from last weekâ€™s
low on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 82.50: the trend line combining the monthly lows
of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart.
â€˘ 80.00: psychological
â€˘ 84.88: the falling trend line from Jun 4th
top, a very important line.
â€˘ 86.25: Jul 16th low.
â€˘ 86.81: Jul 26th &
The Pound broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.5405, and dropped exactly as expected
to reach 1.5326, which was not enough to meet our suggested target which was
pips below 1.53. With this break this pair has left the â€śneutral zoneâ€ť which we
said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect
the Pound to dive. But after more than 240 pips down from yesterdayâ€™s top, the
price is subject to a short term correction, with a condition of staying below
1.5480. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction,
before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. Short term support
is at 1.5382, which we are trading just above as this report is prepared. If
broken, the Pound will continue to fall, and it will target 1.5293 & 1.5224.
On the other hand, we could see a correction up to 1.5480, without changing this
negative outlook. But if the Pound manages to break the resistance 1.5480, our
negative outlook will suffer, and the price will shoot up to the very important
1.5596, and the most important 1.5757.
â€˘ 1.5382: short
term 38.2% Fibonacci level.
â€˘ 1.5293: Jul 22nd high.
â€˘ 1.5224: Jul 6th
â€˘ 1.5480: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
â€˘ 1.5596: Aug 26th high and the slowly falling trend line from
Aug 16th top.
â€˘ 1.5757: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Aug 6th major
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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