Euro Changes Trend to Up; Set-up for Rally to 1.2960
The Euro surged to the upside overnight, taking out the last
swing top at 1.2779 and changing the main trend to up on the daily chart. Based
on the range of 1.3334 to 1.2587, the EUR USD is now set up for a possible test
of the retracement zone of this range at 1.2960 to 1.3049. A downtrending Gann
angle from the 1.3334 top is at 1.2974, suggesting the formation of a
resistance cluster at 1.2960 to 1.2974 today and 1.2954 to 1.2960 on Thursday.
The initial catalyst behind the surge in the Euro overnight
was the bullish PMI news from China
and the better than expected growth report from Australia. Both news pieces helped
rally Asian stocks leading to greater demand for risk and subsequently the
News that the Euro Zone manufacturing recovery hit a
six-month low failed to halt this morningâ€™s advance.Overnight it was reported that the
manufacturing purchasing managersâ€™ index slowed to 55.1, with â€śmoderatedâ€ť growth
both in output and new orders.
According to the report, the hardest hit country in the Euro
Zone was Greece
which is still trying to recover from its financial crisis from the Spring. Germany and France posted â€śstrong growthâ€ť.The report also showed that the improvements
were â€śstill centered on Germany,
the Netherlands and Austriaâ€ť.
The recovery was â€ścomparatively modestâ€ť in Italy
Although this report suggests that the region is cooling,
the strength in Germany and France
should be noted. The weaker countries are likely to bring up this fact at the
next European Central Bank meeting on September 3. ECB members want to be
assured that the Euro Region as a whole recovers at a similar pace so that the
stronger countries do not dominate the weaker economies.
Despite the change in trend to the upside in the Euro,
momentum must continue to remain strong to drive this market to the objective
minimum objective of 1.2960 over the near-term.
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