The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2855
level and was supported around the $1.2660 level.The common currency reached its strongest
level since 19 August as dealers lifted the pair but stopped short of testing
short-term resistance around the $1.2875 level. Data released in the U.S. today
saw MBA mortgage applications move lower to +2.7% while August Challenger job
cuts were off 54.5% y/y.Also, August
ADP employment was off 10,000, defying expectations of a +15,000 climb and down
fron the revised prior reading of 37,000.These data suggest the private payrolls component of Friday‚Äôs August
non-farm payrolls number may be quite weak.Around 100,000 jobs are expected to have been lost last month when the
data are released on Friday.Other data
released today saw the August ISM manufacturing index move higher to 56.3 while
the ISM prices paid component jumped to 61.5.Also, July construction spending was off more than expected at -1.0%
m/m.Ongoing U.S. economic data continue
to evidence an economy that is barely expanding and continued major stresses in
the U.S. labour market.In eurozone news, data released today
saw EMU-16 August PMI manufacturing tick higher to 55.1.Also, German July retail sales were off 0.3%
m/m and up 0.8% y/y while August PMI manufacturing remained steady at
58.2.Additionally, August PMI
manufacturing moved higher to 55.1.The
European Central Bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged tomorrow
and steady through at least the first quarter of 2011.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•83.65
level and was capped around the ¬•84.55 level. There is not much indication the Japanese
government will conduct yen-selling intervention but dealers note there will
decreased liquidity in the market through Tuesday on account of a long U.S.
holiday and action should not be ruled out.Traders remain unimpressed with Bank of Japan Policy Board‚Äôs monetary
easing later this week, speculating it will not lead to any significant
improvement in the economy was responsive to widespread political
pressure.The International Monetary
Fund warned Japan‚Äôs government debt is approaching an ‚Äúunsustainable level.‚ÄĚFormer BoJ Policy Board member Nakahara
reiterated Japan should increase its level of Japanese government bond
purchases.Nakahara noted ‚ÄúLowering the
policy rate to zero is a must to stem the yen‚Äôs gains.The BoJ should also boost outright purchases
of bonds by another ¬•500 billion.Increased bond purchases would enable the government to generate funds
for more public works spending.As a
whole, Japan can‚Äôt live without spending by companies and the government.‚ÄĚThe central bank also noted this week that
downside economic risks may be increasing.Vice finance minister Ikeda reported unsterilized intervention ‚Äúwould be
effective‚ÄĚ and said the central bank should adopt a rigid inflation target in
the long-term.Data to be released in
Japan overnight include the August monetary base following by Q2 capital
spending tomorrow night.The Nikkei 225 stock
index climbed 1.17% to close at ¬•8,927.02.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•107.90 level and was supported
around the ¬•106.55 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•130.10 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese
yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8108 in the over-the-counter market, up
from CNY 6.8078. Data released in China
overnight saw August PMI manufacturing tick higher to 51.7 while the HSBC
manufacturing PMI measured jumped to 51.9.The recent weakness in the yuan suggests PBoC may be seeking to maintain
a more stable yuan in relation to a basket of currencies and not just the U.S.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5490 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5335 level. Data
released in the U.K. today saw August PMI manufacturing decline to 54.3 from
the revised prior reading of 56.9.Bank
of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged
next week.Bank of England Chief Economist Bean spoke at
Jackson Hole this past weekend and said ‚ÄúThe deleveraging process is
incomplete, the recovery remains fragile, and a considerable margin of spare
capacity is yet to be worked off, while further policy action may yet be
necessary to keep the recovery on track.‚ÄĚBean also reported the central bank may impose policies to limit the
ability of borrowers to take on riskier mortgage loans.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8325 level and was supported around the
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0065 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0180 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw August
PMI move sharply lower to 61.4 from the prior reading of 66.9.Q2 GDP and July retail sales data will be
released tomorrow.Swiss National Bank
member Jordan this week said the central bank is closely monitoring the Swiss
franc ‚Äúvery closely‚ÄĚ and said Switzerland‚Äôs monetary policy situation remains
‚Äúvery complex.‚ÄĚJordan also cited a
‚Äúsmall‚ÄĚ short-term risk of deflation.Some traders believe SNB may be forced to resume its franc-selling
intervention to stop the euro‚Äôs sharp decline on the cross.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.2985 level while the British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
bids around the CHF 1.5665 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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