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Thursday September 2, 2010 - 03:47:46 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 02-Sep-2010 - 0340GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
The US Equities jumped on better than expected economic data yesterday. The Dow (10269.47) was up 2.54% and the S&P 500 (1080.29) was up 2.95%. The Dow has honoured the Support at 10000 - our preferred outcome. While above 10000, we may see it move up towards 10700-50 in the coming weeks.

All Asians are up following the Wall Street today. The Nikkei (9035.72, up 1.22%) has again come above the crucial 9000 level and further upmove towards 9200-50 can not be ruled out in the coming days. The Shanghai (2643.49, up 0.79%) may continue to move in the range of 2600-700. In India, the Sensex (18205.87, up 1.31%) and the Nifty (5471.85, up 1.29%) ended higher on strong global sentiments led by good economic data releases worldwide. We may see the markets touch the higher levels of 18500 and 5500 on the Sensex and Nifty respectively, before another fall towards 17500 and 5300.

COMMODITIES
Crude (73.90) bounced back sharply yesterday from the low of 71.67. Although the EIA's data showed an increase in US Crude inventories, the strong manufacturing data from China and US triggered the price rise yesterday. However, technically there is an important Resistance on the weekly as well as on the 3-day candle charts at 76, a strong break above which have to be seen for the upmove to continue. To see the Resistance on the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1247.10) is continuing to trade higher near its crucial Resistance at 1250. The high recorded yesterday was 1255.30, but a close above 1250 was not seen. As mentioned earlier, a strong break above 1250 might see 1275 on the upside. Also a weekly close above 1250 would open doors for a fresh upmove towards 1300 or even higher. Support is seen at 1220.


CURRENCIES
Resistance at 1.2839 (100-mth MA) has held as expected on the Euro (1.2790). Very crucial EU GDP data due for release today, likely to have a bearing on the Euro trend. The US GDP data had disappointed last week, needs to be seen how the EU GDP turns out. Further, the ECB also meets today. Even the hawk, Alex Weber, has been sounding dovish lately.

Dollar-Yen (84.17) is getting Support at lower levels. A fall to 83.66 was bought back, leading to a bounce to 84.66 overnight. Expect sideways movement between 83.90-84.70 over today-tomorrow. The EUR-JPY Cross (107.65) is likely to range sideways betweeen 106.50-107.50 for the next couple of days.

Dollar-Swiss (1.0178) fell to a low of 1.0050 overnight and has bounced well from there. Long-term trend Support on the Weekly Candles has held well. May expect a good rise in the coming weeks now. The Pound (1.5435) has bounced back up to the 200-day MA (currently at 1.5428) from yesterday's low of 1.5336, but remains bearish overall.

The Aussie (0.9063) saw a huge recovery yesterday on better than expected GDP data. There seem to be chances of further rise towards 0.92 while the Aussie now remains above 0.9020-00.

In Asia, the Korean Won (1181.50) has strengthened quite a bit. The USD-SGD (1.3486) has also fallen below 1.3500 and is just a a wee bit above the Jul-08 low of 1.3447. Dollar-Rupee may well fall towards 46.65-60 on strong Equities and strong Asian currencies.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The 2Y yields and 10Y yields were up 1 bps and 6 bps to quote at 0.49% and 2.56% respectively.


DATA TODAY
Aug Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ 1.89 Bln...Previous A$ 3.44 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

06:45 GMT CH GDP QoQ (Q2'10)
...Expected 0.8%...Previous 0.4%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/chgdp.shtml

09:00 GMT EU GDP Q2 '10 1st
...Expected 1.0%...Previous 1.0%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/eugdp.shtml

11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euecb.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
AU GDP QoQ (June'10)
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 0.7%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/augdp.shtml

US ADP Emp
...Actual -10K...Previous 42K

Aug US Manufacturing ISM
...Actual 56.3...Previous 55.5
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usism.shtml


 

 

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Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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