European market Update: UK data disappoints; ECB press conference eyed (TTN)
Thursday, September 02, 2010
European market Update: UK data disappoints; ECB press conference eyed
***Economic Data*** - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Aug 27th: $ v $475.2B prior - (FR) France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 10.0%e; ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate: 9.3% v 9.6%e ; Mainland Unemployment Change: -70K v -8K prior - (SZ) Swiss Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.6%e - (UK) Aug Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.9% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.9%e - (SP) Spain Aug Net Unemployment M/M: +61.1K v +50.0Ke - (SZ) Swiss July Real Retail Sales Y/Y: % v 0.9% prior - (SW) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%; as expected - (IT) Italy July PPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.3%e - (BR) Brazil Aug FIPE CPI: 0.2% v 0.2%e - (UK) Aug PMI Construction: 52.1 v 53.2e - (EU) Euro-Zone July PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Q2 Preliminary Gross Fix Capital Q/Q: 1.8% v -0.4% prior; Govt Expend Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.2% prior; Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.2%e - (SA) South Africa Aug Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 36.9% v 20.0% prior
Fixed Income: - (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold â‚¬3.3B versus â‚¬3.0-4.0B indicated range in 3% 2015 Bonos; avg yield 2.964% v 3.657% prior; Bid-to-cover 1.7x v 1.7x prior - (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sells total â‚¬ v â‚¬9.0B indicated in Bonds via four tranches - Sold â‚¬685M in Apr 3.25% 2016 BTANs; avg yield 1.78% v 2.970%; Bid-to-cover: 5.04x v 1.69x prior - Sold â‚¬2.895B in Apr 3.50% 2020 OATs; avg yield 2.55% v 3.04%; Bid-to-cover: 2.16x v 3.51x prior - Sold â‚¬3.970B in Apr 2026 OATs; avg yield 3.00% v 3.54%; Bid-to-cover: 1.28x v 1.45x prior - Sold â‚¬1.33B in Apr 2041 OATs; avg yield 3.17% v 3.84%; Bid-to-cover: 1.94x v 1.88x prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF35B vers HUF50B in 12-Month Bills ; avg yield 5.82% v 5.44% prior - (UK) DMO sold Â£3.75B in 5% 2014 Gilts; avg yield 1.542% v 2.032% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.69x v 2.28x prior; tail 0.7bps
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** - Equities: - As of 5:35am ET (9:30 GMT) Euro Stoxx 50 Index unchanged at 2,714; DAX Index Unchanged at 6,084; CAC-40 Index +0.1% at 3,628 and FTSE 100 Index +0.1% at 5,373
- French spirits name Pernod Ricard [RI.FR] slid 1.7% at the opening after results had decreased and company missed estimates. Note slow recovery in US consumer spending and contrasting situation in Europe with signs of a recovery but also the impact of austerity measures. Company said it would provide earnings guidance at its AGM and said it would focus on a strong marketing investment level, and the reduction in Group debt - Russia's Gazprom [GAZP.RU] reported an increase both in net and revenues as cold weather in Russia and Europe triggered a raise in volumes. In other Russian names, VTB Group [VTBR.RU] swung to a profit in H1 and Q2 compared to a loss a year ago. Its revenues increased by 23% beating analyst expectations. Group saw the first signs of recovery in demand for credit both from corporate and retail customers with corporate and retail loans up by 12% and 5% respectively. Evraz [EVR.UK], one of Russia's largest steelmakers reported a narrowing first half net loss of $267M as compared to last year loss of $987M. Excluding items, the result was a profit of $284M. Revenues also rose but came slightly below analysts' estimates. Company noted that Q3 results might be affected by prices and volumes volatility. - UK name Go-Ahead Group [GOG.UK] reported a 24%fall in FY profit and flat revenues. Group cut its dividend to 25.5p from 55.5p and remained cautious on the near term prospects for the UK economy which rendered the FY outlook difficult to predict.
Speakers: - France Budget Min: Might have to increase taxes in 2013 - Le Figaro - Japan DPJ Ozawa commented that the country must halt sharp JPY currency appreciation but conceded that a JPY rise over the longer term was 'not bad'. He stated that BOJ policy alone could not stop the JPY appreciation trend and that there were other steps beside JPY-selling intervention to curb JPY appreciation. Solo BOJ currency intervention might not have much effect but the central bank must be prepared to act - Japan PM Kan commented that recent yen moves had been driven by dollar weakness. BOJ emergency measures represented awareness of "crisis" on Yen - Germany's Chemical Body VCI raised its 2010 production outlook to 11% versus 8.5% prior view . The association also increased its 2010 German chemicals sales to +18% compared to their prior view +10%. It noted that German chemical industry was close to pre-crisis levels - Reportedly a Chinese Government Researcher stated that China would not launch new stimulus program though wary of exiting current one and noted no need for major economic policy initiatives. It noted that credit growth was sufficient. - The Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) stated after its rate hike decision that it would maintain the repo rate path forecast as set out back in it July minutes. It reiterated that it saw a normalization in rate with Q4 Repo Rate at 0.9%; 3Q 2011 Repo Rate at 2.1%; 3Q 2012 Repo Rate At 3.1%; Q3 2013 Repo rate at 3.8% unchanged from July view. The central bank noted that two members (Ekholm and Svensson) had reservation about the current interest rate path and sought a lower rate path at today's decision - China and India agreed that reserve currencies should be kept relatively stable and that inflationary pressures were rising in some emerging market economies. The two nations noted that ensuring robust global economic recovery remained challenging and that monetary policy adjustments might cause capital flow disorder - Japanese press reported that the BOJ might consider further easing measure if the JPY currency continued to rise sharply
Currencies/Fixed Income: - The GBP exhibited a weaker tone during the European session as softer economic data weight upon the currency. GBP/USD retesting the 1.54 handle while EUR/GBP was firmer by around 50 pips in the session at 0.8335 area. The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.28 handle but remained below the hourly highs established on Wednesday that option related flows capped. All eyes will be on the ECB press conference later today to see if the central bank introduces new liquidity facilities to accommodate the maturities of the September LTROs. Dealers continue to note that option plays likely to cap the 1.2650 to 1.2850 range. The SEK currency surged in the aftermath of the Riksbank rate decision. EUR/SEK posted 16-month lows below the 9.30 level before consolidating. The JPY maintained a steady tone with the continued rhetoric on the evils of continued strength by Japanese gov't and corporate officials . USD/JPY holding above the 84 handle but within striking distance of fresh 15-year lows below the 83.57 achieved last month.
In the Papers-Geopolitical: - In the Financial Times, according to an IMF report, markets may be overestimating the risk of a Greek sovereign debt default, and along with Japan, it is a country among those with the least 'fiscal space'. The market consensus states Greece will eventually have to restructure its debt. Adding further insight, of the eight cases in the past 20 years 'when an advanced economy with high government debts cut its deficit to zero, none of went on to default'. - It was reported that China will not launch a new stimulus program, though it is wary of exiting the current one. There is no need for major economic policy initiatives and credit growth is sufficient. Note on 17th of August China Ministry of Commerce Huo Jianguo planned to introduce import stimulus as soon as September
***Notes/Observations*** - ECB rate decision later today. ECB seems likely to introduce new liquidity facilities to accommodate Sept maturities. ECB Staff forecasts are likely to raise growth forecasts. - UK data disappoints while Swiss and EU GDP data a touch better - Aug Monster online employment index 136 vs 138 in July. - IMF: Warns countries of debt risks (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Japan). Dismisses idea of Greek default. - Middle East peace talks under way at the White House. - India and China bring up the reserve currency issue again - Hungary debt auction again fails to sell targeted amount - US same-store sales data expected ahead of the equity open
***Looking Ahead*** - 6:00 (MA) Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Rate unchanged from the current rate of 2.75%. - 6:00 (MA) Malaysia July Trade Balance (MYR):v 6.1Be v 5.0B prior; Exports Y/Y: 11.5%e v 17.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: 18.6%e v 30.1% prior - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic sold CZK v CZK7.0B indicated in 91-Day Bills - 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Main Refi Rate at 1.00% - 8:30 (US) Q2 Final Nonfarm Productivity: -1.9%e v -0.9% Prior; Unit Labor Costs: 1.2%e v 0.2% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 475K v 473K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.440M v 4.456M - 8:30 (EU) ECB press conference - 9:30 (SI) Singapore Aug Purchasing Managers Index: 51.3e v 52.2 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 52.8e v 55.7 prior - 10:00 (US) July Factory Orders: 0.3%e v -1.2% prior - 10:00 (US) July Pending Home Sales M/M: -1.0%e v -2.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -20.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Aug ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year TIPS Reopening - 21:00 (CH) China Aug Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 60.1 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.