The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2845
level and was supported around the $1.2775 level.Todayâ€™s intraday low was right around the
38.2% retracement of the $1.1880 - $1.3335 level and chartists are eyeing the
$1.2875 level as the pairâ€™s next upside target.Traders await tomorrowâ€™s release of U.S. August non-farm payrolls data
with many forecasts focusing on job losses of 100,000 last month.This weekâ€™s ADP private payrolls data were weak
and it is likely the labour market contracted again in August.Many forecasts are also calling for an increase
in the unemployment rate to 9.6% from last monthâ€™s print of 9.5%.An increase in the unemployment rate may
reflect both new job losses and more people returning to the labour market
seeking paid employment, a positive development. August average hourly earnings
are also expected to decrease and economists will also pay close attention to
average weekly hours.Data released in
the U.S. today saw Q2 non-farm productivity worsen to -1.8% from the prior
reading of -0.9% with Q2 unit labour costs up 1.1%.Also, weekly initial jobless claims printed
at 472,000, down from last weekâ€™s total of 478,000, and continuing jobless
claims came in at 4.456 million.Additionally, July factory orders were up less-than-expected at +0.1%
and July pending home sales came in more-than-expected at +5.2% m/m and were
off 20.1% y/y.August ISM
non-manufacturing data will be released tomorrow in addition to the non-farm
payrolls data.Federal Reserve Chairman
Bernanke testified today and said banks should be closed if they threaten the
financial system.He also defended the
Fedâ€™s decision to not bailout Lehman Brothers, arguing the Fed lacked the
authority to save the firm.Boston Fed
President Rosengren said a â€śholisticâ€ť approach is required to counter the
housing crisis.In eurozone news, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy
unchanged today as expected with its main refinancing rate steady at 1%.ECB President Trichet reported the eurozone
economic recovery â€śshould proceed at a moderate pace.â€ťThe common currency gained some ground
earlier on newsthat Spain successfully
sold â‚¬5.5 billion in five-year debt.The
ECB is currently projecting GDP growth between 1.4% and 1.8% in 2010 and
between 0.5% and 2.3% in 2011.Data
released in the eurozone today saw Q2 gross domestic product growth of 1.0% q/q
and 1.9% y/y, an increase attributable to upwardly-revised household consumption.Other data saw EMU-16 July producer price
inflation up 0.2% m/m and 4.0% y/y.French
data saw Q2 unemployment off 70,000 with the ILO umemployment rate lower at
9.7%.Euro offers are cited
around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ84.00
figure and was capped around the ÂĄ84.55 level. Traders continue to ponder the likelihood of
yen-selling intervention amid ongoing verbal intervention from Japanese
monetary authorities.Sources indicate
Japan views foreign exchange volatility as a bigger issue than the yenâ€™s
current level.Some Japanese officials
and some investment banks are calling on Japan to utilize unsterilized
intervention to arrest the yenâ€™s strength and leave extra liquidity in the
financial system, essentially intervening and easing simultaneously.There is speculation Bank of Japan will delay
any additional monetary easing until October at the earliest.The central bankâ€™s decision to ease policy
further earlier this week was made amid intense pressure from the government
and it is possible the BoJ may be on the sidelines unless there is significant
additional yen appreciation.BoJ
Governor Shirakawa this week warned that downside economic risks may increase. Data
released in Japan overnight saw the August monetary base climb 5.4% y/y.Data to be released tonight include Q2
capital spending.The Nikkei 225 stock index
climbed 1.52% to close at ÂĄ9,062.84.U.S.
dollar bids are cited around the ÂĄ84.60 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ÂĄ107.45 level and was capped around the ÂĄ108.30 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ129.15 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ83.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8077 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8108. Data released in China yesterday saw August
PMI manufacturing tick higher to 51.7 while the HSBC manufacturing PMI measured
jumped to 51.9.Data to be released
tonight include August non-manufacturing PMI and HSBC services PMI.Former Peopleâ€™s Bank of China adviser Fan
Gang said the central bank should â€śgraduallyâ€ť adjust the money supply and slow
the rate of money issuance.Fan also
said China does not currently face an inflation risk.PBoC official Hu said the yuan needs to
become more flexible.The recent
weakness in the yuan suggests PBoC may be seeking to maintain a more stable
yuan in relation to a basket of currencies and not just the U.S. dollar.
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5350 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5460 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw August
Nationwide house prices off 0.9% m/m and up 3.9% y/y while August PMI
construction moved lower to 52.1.Data
to be released tomorrow include August PMI services numbers.Bank of Englandâ€™s Monetary Policy Committee
is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged next week.Bank
of England Chief Economist Bean spoke at Jackson Hole this past weekend and
said â€śThe deleveraging process is incomplete, the recovery remains fragile, and
a considerable margin of spare capacity is yet to be worked off, while further
policy action may yet be necessary to keep the recovery on track.â€ťBean also reported the central bank may
impose policies to limit the ability of borrowers to take on riskier mortgage
loans.Cable bids are cited around the
US$ 1.5115 level.The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ÂŁ0.8345 level and was supported around the
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0095 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0185 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw Q2
gross domestic product up 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y while July retail sales were up
4.8% y/y.August consumer price
inflation data will be released tomorrow.Swiss National Bank member Jordan this week said the central bank is
closely monitoring the Swiss franc â€śvery closelyâ€ť and said Switzerlandâ€™s
monetary policy situation remains â€śvery complex.â€ťJordan also cited a â€śsmallâ€ť short-term risk
of deflation.Some traders believe SNB
may be forced to resume its franc-selling intervention to stop the euroâ€™s sharp
decline on the cross.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.2940 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5530 level.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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