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Friday September 3, 2010 - 03:39:02 GMT
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Late Session Short-Covering Drives Stocks Higher

A late session short-covering rally triggered by day-trader liquidation late in the trading session helped equity markets finish higher on Thursday. The inability to break stocks throughout the day most likely encouraged frustrated bears to cover their positions ahead of tomorrow’s important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.


Stocks seemed to be underpinned throughout today’s session by strong bids. The surge to the upside late in the session allowed the September E-mini S&P 500 contract to reach a key short-term objective at 1088.00. The September E-mini NASDAQ finished its rally to 1831.00 and the September E-mini Dow reached its 50% objective at 10297. All of this action at retracement zones confirms that the indices are rangebound.


September T-Notes closed lower in light trading. The main trend is down on the daily chart. A worse than expected U.S. employment report could send this market into a retracement zone at 123’23 to 123’05.


September Treasury Bonds closed near its low, putting it in a position to work lower on Friday. Good employment news could drive this market into 130’17 to 129’11. A worse than expected number will revive speculation that the Fed will have to provide more stimulus. This is likely to mean a retest of the recent top at 135’19.


Concerns over a slowdown in U.K. manufacturing growth and mortgage market worries helped pressure the British Pound. Sterling investors seem to be pre-occupied lately over the new austerity measures and tax hikes. Many still feel the economy will slump because of these two programs.


The September British Pound chart indicates room to the downside with 1.5113 a potential downside target. Short-covering could trigger a quick pop to 1.5600, but this likely will be another selling opportunity.


The U.S. Dollar traded flat to lower as most traders remained cautious ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Earlier this morning the Dollar showed little reaction to the European Central Bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady and a slight drop in U.S. Weekly Initial Claims.


Jobless claims remained a concern among investors because they remain at a high level. This is an indication that the U.S. economy is cooling while fueling worries that the recovery may not be sustained if private firms continue to refrain from hiring new workers.


The September Euro held steady following the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates at 1%. The market did have a positive reaction to the comment from ECB President Trichet who said the recovery “should proceed at a moderate pace”.


A choppy stock market led to mixed results in the commodity-linked currencies. The New Zealand Dollar traded better, but the Australian and Canadian Dollars were flat which may be a sign that Wednesday’s strong rallies may have been overdone.


The rally in the U.S. equity markets has temporarily stopped the rally in the September Japanese Yen. Earlier in the week the Japanese Yen rose sharply after the government and the Bank of Japan failed to take intervention action and opted to increase its quantitative easing program. Stronger equity markets could revive appetite for risk and the carry trade, leading to a weaker Yen.


Although the Dollar is down this week, many large traders and institutions have been on the sidelines due to tomorrow’s employment report and Monday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday leading to speculation that this week’s action was due to thin trading conditions.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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