A late session short-covering rally triggered by day-trader
liquidation late in the trading session helped equity markets finish higher on
Thursday. The inability to break stocks throughout the day most likely
encouraged frustrated bears to cover their positions ahead of tomorrowâ€™s
important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
Stocks seemed to be underpinned throughout todayâ€™s session
by strong bids. The surge to the upside late in the session allowed the September
E-mini S&P 500 contract to reach a key short-term objective at 1088.00. The
September E-mini NASDAQ finished its rally to 1831.00 and the September E-mini
Dow reached its 50% objective at 10297. All of this action at retracement zones
confirms that the indices are rangebound.
September T-Notes closed lower in light trading. The main
trend is down on the daily chart. A worse than expected U.S. employment report could send
this market into a retracement zone at 123â€™23 to 123â€™05.
September Treasury Bonds closed near its low, putting it in
a position to work lower on Friday. Good employment news could drive this
market into 130â€™17 to 129â€™11. A worse than expected number will revive
speculation that the Fed will have to provide more stimulus. This is likely to
mean a retest of the recent top at 135â€™19.
Concerns over a slowdown in U.K. manufacturing growth and
mortgage market worries helped pressure the British Pound. Sterling investors
seem to be pre-occupied lately over the new austerity measures and tax hikes.
Many still feel the economy will slump because of these two programs.
The September British Pound chart indicates room to the
downside with 1.5113 a potential downside target. Short-covering could trigger
a quick pop to 1.5600, but this likely will be another selling opportunity.
The U.S. Dollar traded flat to lower as most traders
remained cautious ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Earlier this
morning the Dollar showed little reaction to the European Central Bankâ€™s
decision to hold interest rates steady and a slight drop in U.S. Weekly Initial
Jobless claims remained a concern among investors because
they remain at a high level. This is an indication that the U.S. economy is cooling while
fueling worries that the recovery may not be sustained if private firms
continue to refrain from hiring new workers.
The September Euro held steady following the ECBâ€™s decision
to hold interest rates at 1%. The market did have a positive reaction to the
comment from ECB President Trichet who said the recovery â€śshould proceed at a
A choppy stock market led to mixed results in the
commodity-linked currencies. The New Zealand Dollar traded better, but the
Australian and Canadian Dollars were flat which may be a sign that Wednesdayâ€™s
strong rallies may have been overdone.
The rally in the U.S. equity markets has temporarily
stopped the rally in the September Japanese Yen. Earlier in the week the
Japanese Yen rose sharply after the government and the Bank of Japan failed to
take intervention action and opted to increase its quantitative easing program.
Stronger equity markets could revive appetite for risk and the carry trade,
leading to a weaker Yen.
Although the Dollar is down this week, many large traders
and institutions have been on the sidelines due to tomorrowâ€™s employment report
and Mondayâ€™s U.S. Labor Day holiday leading to speculation that this weekâ€™s
action was due to thin trading conditions.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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