Friday September 3, 2010 - 03:47:01 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 03-Sep-2010 - 0340GMT
The US Equities ended higher in the later part of the session yesterday. Markets were up after some favourable housing and jobs data releases which lifted the investor confidence. The markets will be closely following the much awaited US NFP data, due later today. The Dow (10320.10) was up 0.49% and the S&P 500 (1090.10) was up 0.91%. While above 10000, we may see the Dow move up towards 10700-50 in the coming weeks.
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (9097.63) is up 0.38% while the Shanghai (2653.50) is flat. In India, the Sensex (18238.31, up 0.18%) and the Nifty (5486.15, up 0.26%) lost their opening gains but still managed to close in green yesterday. We may see the Sensex and the Nifty touch higher levels of 18500 and 5550-600 respectively, before another fall towards 17500 and 5300.
Crude (74.79) has risen further. The threat of the Hurricane Earl and fire in an offshore oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico triggered the rise yesterday. As mentioned earlier, technically there is an important Resistance on the weekly as well as on the 3-day candle charts at 76, a strong break above which have to be seen for the upmove to continue. To see the Resistance on the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1250.70) is trading higher and closed above the curcial Resistance at 1250 yesterday. The US NFP data release due today will be watched carefully by the market as it would determine the further direction of move going forward. A weekly close above 1250 would be very bullish for further rise towards 1275-1300 in the coming days/weeks. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The EU GDP that came inline with the expectation at 1% did not have much impact much on the market yesterday and the market is awaiting the the key US NFP data today.
The Euro (1.2823) is trading in a narrow range of 1.2800-50 since the US session yesterday. However, the broader view is bearish with significant Resistance in 1.2840-60 region. Dollar-Yen (84.33) is ranged between 84.00-50 within its overall downtrend. We might expect it retain this range until the US NFP data release. The Euro-Yen Cross (108.10) has risen from yesterday's low of 107.44, but has very significant Resistance at 109.10 (21-DMA) and the overall picture is still bearish.
Dollar-Swiss may trade in the range of 1.0090-170 before a break on the down side next week. Cable (1.5409) may move in a range of 1.5350-450 today. Aussie may move up towards 0.9200 before some dip later in the day.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is continuing to trade strong and is now trading near 1178. USD-SGD has risen from the low of 1.3411 and is now trading near 1.3474. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower at 47.7125/7225 and might fall towards 47.60-55 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be fixed at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.49% while the 10Y yields were up 6 bps to quote at 2.62%.
09:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.0%
12:30 GMT Aug US NFP
...Expected -101K...Previous -131K
Aug Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ 1.89 Bln...Previous A$ 3.44 Bln
CH GDP QoQ (Q2'10)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.4%
EU GDP Q2 '10 1st
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 1.0%
E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
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