The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2875
level and was supported around the $1.2810 level.The common currency moved to its highest
level since 19 August after the release of better-than-expected U.S. August
non-farm payrolls data that saw 54,000 jobs lost last month, defying
expectations of more than 100,000 in new job losses.July‚Äôs non-farm payrolls tally was revised
from -131,000 to -54,000 and August private payrolls gained 67,000, down from
the revised July reading of +107,000.Manufacturing payrolls declined last month and the overall August
unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.6%, a number that reflects fewer overall
payrolls and more people entering the official labour force.Government payrolls decreased 121,000 and the
so-called underemployment rate increased to 16.7% from 16.5%.Additionally, August average hourly earnings
were up more-than-expected at 0.3% m/m and 1.7% y/y and average weekly hours
worked remained steady at 34.2.Other
data saw the August ISM non-manufacturing composite index weaken to 51.5 from
the prior reading of 54.3.Collectively,
these data continue to evidence amemic U.S. economic activity with bleak labour
market growth, weak U.S. housing, and slow final private demand.Atlanta Fed President Lockhart reported the
Fed‚Äôs next policy move is far from decided and indicated his ‚Äúperception of
risks have shifted somewhat to the downside.‚ÄĚIn eurozone news, EMU-16
August PMI services improved to 55.9 from the prior reading of 55.6 while the
PMI composite ticked higher to 56.2.Other data saw EMU-16 July retail sales up 0.1% m/m and 1.1% y/y.German August PMI services moved lower to
57.2 while French PMI services climbed to 60.4.European Central Bank member Gonzalez-Paramo said rates are ‚Äúappropriate‚ÄĚ
and cited upside inflation risks.ECB‚Äôs
Draghi said policy will remain ‚Äúaccommodative.‚ÄĚ ECB member Wellink said there
is ‚Äúno capacity‚ÄĚ for another round of bailouts.Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•85.20
level and was supported around the ¬•84.15 level. The pair moved to intraday highs during the early
North American session following the stronger-than-expected U.S. August labour
market data.Bank of Japan‚Äôs Policy
Board meets next week and it is expected the central bank will keep monetary
policy unchanged until October at the earliest following this week‚Äôs decision
to expand monetary policy.The risk of
additional yen tightening likely remains the number one factor that could
result in additional action by the central bank. Most dealers do not expect BoJ‚Äôs
expansion of easing measures will have a material impact on the economy or the
yen.Traders are still split as to
whether or not Japan will conduct official yen-selling intervention.Verbal intervention has been intense over the
past few weeks but many traders believe Japan will be reluctant to conduct
yen-selling intervention without the participation of the U.S.Options traders are reporting that the
premium of put options over calls are confirming that traders are reducing bets
the dollar will depreciate.Intervention
fears and concerns that U.S. economic data may improve have reduced demand for
yen.Traders are closely watching the
leadership election within the ruling Democratic Party of Japan involving Prime
Minister Kan and Ichiro Ozawa.Q2
capital spending data were released overnight and improved to -1.7% from the
prior reading of -11.5%.The Nikkei 225 stock
index climbed 0.57% to close at ¬•9,114.13.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•109.55 level and was supported
around the ¬•107.90 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•131.60 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested bids around the ¬•83.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese
yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8035 in the over-the-counter market, down
from CNY 6.8077. Data released in China overnight
saw August non-manufacturing PMI remain steady at 60.1 while the August HSBC
services PMI number improved to 57.6.August trade data will be released next week.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5460 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5390 level. U.K. August PMI services data were released
today and moved lower to 51.3 from the prior reading of 53.1.Other data released in the U.K. this week saw
August Nationwide house prices off 0.9% m/m and up 3.9% y/y while August PMI
construction moved lower to 52.1.Bank
of England Chief Economist Bean spoke at Jackson Hole this past weekend and
said ‚ÄúThe deleveraging process is incomplete, the recovery remains fragile, and
a considerable margin of spare capacity is yet to be worked off, while further
policy action may yet be necessary to keep the recovery on track.‚ÄĚBean also reported the central bank may
impose policies to limit the ability of borrowers to take on riskier mortgage
loans. Bank of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy
Committee will convene next week and is expected to keep monetary policy
unchanged.Cable bids are cited around
the US$ 1.5115 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8345 level and
was supported around the ¬£0.8295 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0235 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0120 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw August
consumer price inflation up 0.0% m/m and 0.3% y/y.August unemployment data will be released on
Tuesday.Data released in Switzerland this
week saw Q2 gross domestic product up 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y while July retail
sales were up 4.8% y/y.Swiss National
Bank member Jordan this week said the central bank is closely monitoring the
Swiss franc ‚Äúvery closely‚ÄĚ and said Switzerland‚Äôs monetary policy situation
remains ‚Äúvery complex.‚ÄĚJordan also
cited a ‚Äúsmall‚ÄĚ short-term risk of deflation.Some traders believe SNB may be forced to resume its franc-selling
intervention to stop the euro‚Äôs sharp decline on the cross.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3140 level while the British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.5790 level.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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