***Economic data*** - (BR) Brazil Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.0%e; GDP Accumulated: 5.1% v 5.2%e - (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -54K v -105Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +67K v +40Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -27K v +10Ke - (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: 9.6% v 9.6%e - (US) Aug Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.2 v 34.2e - (US) Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing 51.5 v 53.2e - (MX) Mexico Aug Consumer Confidence: 88.7 v 86.8e
- This morning's better-than-expected US August payroll report reinforced the risk on theme that has driven trading in the back half of the week. US equity futures and European markets surged in the wake of the reading while yields on key government bonds came off historic lows, steepening the yield curve. Some of this enthusiasm has evaporated following the disappointing US August ISM non-manufacturing data out at 10:00amET, with equity markets giving up gains and bond yields coming in again. The August payrolls data included significant revisions to the June and July numbers, making the summer's employment trends seem a little less dismal. However, commentators are focusing on revisions to the July private payroll gains (to 107K from 71K) that make this morning's private payrolls pale in comparison. The August ISM non-manufacturing data included bad signs in the new orders and employment sub indices, both of which hit lows not seen since the end of 2009.
- In its mid quarter update yesterday after the close, semi manufacturer Novellus Systems tightened up its guidance for its Q3 and said that its business has not changed since its last update, in contrast to a recently lowered outlook from Intel. Shares of NVLS rose in the after-hours trading and were up as much as 3% after the US open, while the industry ETF SMH was up 2%. Shares of both are well off their highs. Take Two Interactive crushed expectations in its Q3 report, turning a moderate profit as opposed to estimates for a small loss. The company demolished expectations with its much improved 2010 guidance. Shares of TTWO were up 15% after the open and remain elevated at around +12% in mid morning trading. Another day, another acquisition contest: Eldorado Gold and Goldcorp are pursuing Andean Resources, whose principal asset is the Cerro Negro gold project in Argentina. Eldorado first offered C$6.36/shr for Andean, valuing the firm at about C$3.4B. Goldcorp then offered C$6.50/shr.
- EUR/USD managed to take out stops above the 1.2850 level after the US payroll report. Dealers noted that the steepening US yield curve might be able to provide a floor for the greenback if the 30-year t-bill can push above the 4% level. One dealer commented that the wider US 2/10 spread could support the dollar just as the narrowing of the spread earlier this summer contributed to its soft tone. USD/CHF and USD/JPY headed below prior pivotal levels of 1.070 and 85.00 once again. The broadly weaker CHF had dealers wondering whether the SNB might take advantage of the situation with a fresh round of intervention. EUR/CHF was trading above 1.3150 level with dealers discussing the potential of a key reversal week in the pair if it could close above 1.32 today. The tepid ISM non-manufacturing data pushed CHF and JPY off their worst levels, with USD/JPY back below the 85 level.
***Looking Ahead*** - (CO) Colombia Aug Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior - (CO) Colombia Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.4% prior - (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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