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Thursday April 7, 2005 - 07:14:41 GMT
ACM REFCO - www.ac-markets.com

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FX Daily Technical Strategy

The dollar eased against the yen and the euro on Thursday, but traders said it would soon return to an upward path on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates, possibly at a faster pace.


The dollar has hit a succession of five-month highs against the yen in the past two weeks, topping out at 108.90 yen on Tuesday, on hopes that the Fed might boost its credit tightening from the current moderate pace to nip inflation in the bud.


By 0548 GMT, the dollar bought around 108.50 yen after meeting selling by exporters at the day's high around 108.80 yen.


It was at 108.68 yen in late U.S. trade.


The euro fetched around $1.2900 up from $1.2870 in late U.S. trade. It hit a two-month low of $1.2800 on Tuesday, according to electronic trading platform EBS.


The single European currency rose to just above 140.00 yen for the first time in three weeks, due to hefty buying of cross currencies by Japanese investors at the start of the new financial year.


The Australian dollar was at around 76.85 U.S. cents after striking a two-month low of 76.26 cents earlier in the day.


The Aussie got a lift after a surprise jump in jobs in March reignited expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could tighten credit after leaving its key rate at 5.5 percent on Wednesday.


 


RATE ADVANTAGE


With the Federal Reserve seen raising rates at its next two meetings in May and June, many traders expected the dollar to stay supported by the advantage it has over currencies in countries where rates are not forecast to rise any time soon.


The Bank of Japan kept its key rate steady on Wednesday, while both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England were expected to maintain their policies later in the day.


Weekly capital flows data showed on Thursday that Japanese investors bought a net 298.7 billion yen ($2.75 billion) in foreign bonds last week after dumping 230.6 billion yen the week before.


Their net purchases of foreign stocks nearly quadrupled to 100 billion yen last week.


While many dealers expect the dollar to continue on its upward trend, possibly rising to around 112 yen over the next three months, some said that next week's U.S. trade data and capital flows figures could be a thorn in the currency's side.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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