December Treasury Bonds broke on Friday as investors shed
safer assets in favor of higher-yielding risky assets. The main trend remained
up on the daily chart while the market completed a 50% retracement of the 124â€™22
to 135â€™19 range. The first target was 130â€™17. The market tested 130â€™12.
Fundamentally, the jobs report drove down T-Bonds, but the
weaker ISM Services report helped drive them higher off the low, setting up a
possible retracement to the upside next week.If T-Bonds set up a secondary lower top, then look for another break to
the downside with 129â€™11 the next likely target.
Once again this current move looks like a normal correction
and not â€śthe bubble burstingâ€ť as some analysts want to believe.
The September Japanese Yen traded sharply lower Friday
morning, but the losses faded after a report showed the U.S. Services Sector
slowed during August. The rise in demand for stocks appeared to be reviving the
carry trade earlier in the session. This is a situation where investors borrow
the lower yielding Yen then sell it to invest in higher yielding assets.
Fridayâ€™s trading action in the Japanese Yen suggests that traders canâ€™t make up
their minds as to whether risk is on or risk is off.
The Japanese Yen began to strengthen against the Dollar
after the weak U.S. ISM Services index indicated slower growth. The Dollar/Yen
pared its gains while some traders took defensive positions against the
possibility of a weaker U.S.
The chart pattern suggests a possible double-top formation.
This pattern will be confirmed if 1.1641 is broken and at the same time will
signal a change in trend to down.
Fridayâ€™s better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data
put risk back on the table. Although this report showed that the economy was
still shedding jobs, private sector hiring was above the consensus, driving
investors into equities and out of gold and Treasuries.
The shift in risk sentiment drove the U.S. Dollar lower
especially against the commodity-linked currencies. The Japanese Yen was also
punished as traders left the safety of the lower yielding currency.
Upside momentum was building in the September Australian
Dollar, putting it in a position to test the early August top at .9221. Recent
Aussie economic data also led to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia
would raise interest rates at its next meeting on September 7.
The strong rise in the September Euro is a sign that
investors are becoming confident that European economies may be emerging
slightly ahead of the U.S.
economy, carried by great economic numbers from Germany.
Earlier in the week, the European Central Bank left interest
rates unchanged, but post report comments from ECB President Jean Claude
Trichet provided some support for the single currency when he announced that
the central bank would continue to provide a range of emergency funding to
commercial banks through the end of 2010. He also downplayed the strength of
the economic numbers which he tends to do each time the Euro Zone economy
appears to be turning the corner.
Thin trading conditions may have contributed to the sharp
break in the Dollar this week, so we are likely to find out next week where
investors stand on the Greenback. Although the U.S. employment data was slightly
better than expected, the country did lose jobs for the month. Some feel that
this report took some of the pressure off the Fed to implement additional
quantitative easing, but others remain concerned about the slow down in the
economy because of todayâ€™s weaker ISM services data.
If T-Bonds continue to break and equities rise, then this
will be a sign that trader appetite for risk is back on. This will lead to more
pressure on the Dollar. The tricky market will be the Dollar/Yen. The revival
of the carry-trade will pressure the Yen, but further weakening in the U.S.
economy may encourage traders to dump the Dollar in favor of the Yen. If this
occurs, then look for renewed talk about Japanese government and Bank of Japan
intervention. The Yen by far will be the most difficult market to assess over
the short-run and should be avoided until the catalyst driving this market can
be identified with clarity and conviction.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.