Monday September 6, 2010 - 03:47:49 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 06-Sep-2010 - 0340GMT
The US Equities gained on good economic data releases throughout last week. The Dow (10447.93) was up 2.93% and the S&P 500 (1104.51) was up 3.75%. The Dow has honoured the Support at 10000 and may go up towards 10700-50 in the coming weeks. The US is close on account of Labour Day today.
The Asian Indices are all trading in the Green today, following the favourable global data releases last week. The Nikkei (9252.62, up 1.52%) may see some immediate Resistance near the 9275-300 region while the Shanghai (2674.05, up 0.70%) may continue to be ranged between 2600 and 2700. In India, the Sensex (18221.43, up 1.24%) and the Nifty (5479.40, up 1.31%) gained following the global markets last week. We may see the Sensex and the Nifty touch higher levels of 18500 and 5550-600 respectively, before another fall towards 17500 and 5300 in the coming weeks.
Crude (74.30) fell and closed below 75 on Friday as the weak US service sector data release and the easing threat of the Hurricane Earl pulled down the price. As mentioend earlier 76 is a very important Resistance level to be watched for and while below 76 there are good chance of a fall once again towards 72-71 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1247.80) fell sharply on Friday following the better US NFP data release. However, it has bounced back from the low of 1238.10 and is now trading near 1250. The overall outlook is bearish and a strong break above 1250 would trigger fresh upmove in the coming days. Support is seen at 1220-10 region.
The Euro (1.2889) is trading higher following the better than expected US NFP data released on Friday. Resistance is seen in 1.2900-10 region and a strong break above it might see 1.3030-50 in the coming days. Support is seen in 1.2800-2770 region. Dollar-Yen (84.37) has come off sharply from the high of 85.22. Technically the 21-DMA (currently at 85.03) is continuing to hold very well and is keeping up the overall downtrend intact. Euro-Yen Cross (108.75) has also come off from its high of 109.56 and is keeping up the overall bearish sentiment intact. While below 109 there are good chances of a fall once againt towards 108-107 in the coming days.
Dollar-Swiss may trade in the range of 1.0100-2000 before a break on the down today. Cable (1.5466) may see some Resistnce in the region of 1.5475-500 before a downmove towards 1.5400 today. Aussie may see some Resistance in the region of 0.9175-200 in the coming sessions today.
The Asian Currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading strong near 1171 and a break below 1168 might increase the chances of further strengthening towards 1160-55. USD-SGD is trading near 1.3439. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.63/64 on Friday and might test the Support at 46.50. USD-INR has very important Support at 46.20.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 2 bps and 8 bps to quote at 0.51% and 2.70% respectively.
03:49 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Expected 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
04:30 GMT AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Expected 4.50%...Previous 4.50%
EU Retail Sales
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
Aug US NFP
...Actual -54K...Previous -54K
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