The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2865
level and was capped around the $1.2920 level.Liquidity was lighter-than-normal on account of the ongoing U.S. Labour
Day holiday weekend and will normalize tonight.The common currency reached its strongest level since 18 August before
giving back intraday gains.There are
renewed concerns today about the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and these are
negatively impacting the euro.Some traders
are citing a significant chance of a Greek sovereign default following austerity
measures implemented earlier this year.Dealers
are also concerned about Ireland‚Äôs fiscal situation following that country‚Äôs
support for its troubled banking sector including Anglo Irish Bank Corp.The common currency also came off on remarks
from European Central Bank member Nowotny who reported policymakers will not
discuss an exit from their accommodative monetary policies before December,
adding ‚Äúit‚Äôs certainly too early to take a clear position.‚ÄĚ Nowotny also noted
the possibility of the eurozone experiencing a long period of low growth and
low inflation.ECB President Trichet
this weekend called for additonal structural reforms and said the central bank
has solidly anchored price stability.Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 September Sentix investor
confidence decline to 7.6.German July
factory orders data will be released tomorrow.In U.S. news, the financial
markets will reopen tomorrow after the holiday weekend.The Fed‚Äôs Beige Book will be released on
Wednesday.Former Federal Reseve Vice
Chairman Kohn reported the Fed should purchase more U.S. Treasury bonds if the
economy falters.President Obama this
weekend announced a six-year US$ 50 billion fiscal spending program to overhaul
U.S. infrastructure.Euro offers
are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•84.05
level and was capped around the ¬•84.50 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board‚Äôs interest rate
decision will be released overnight and most dealers believe the central bank
will keep monetary policy unchanged with the overnight call rate unchanged at
0.10%, its level since 2008.BoJ
Governor Shirakawa is expected to reference last week‚Äôs rate intermeeting
policy shift by the central bank in which it increased a lending facility by ¬•10
trillion to ¬•30 trillion.Shirakawa may
also speak in Japan‚Äôs Diet on 8 September and 9 September.Many traders believe the central bank ‚Äď after
bowing last week to intense political pressure ‚Äď will keep its policy unchanged
for several weeks.Volatile moves in the
yen will likely be the single largest determinant of additional BoJ
action.The central bank‚Äôs ability to
purchase additional Japanese government bonds is limited to rules that require
the central bank to limit holdings in long-term bonds to the outstanding
balance of banknotes in circulation.This means Japan‚Äôs ability to purchase JGBs fell to less than ¬•20
trillion.Data to be released in Japan
overnight include the July leading index and coincident index followed by
August money supply data, August bank lending, July machine orders, and the
July current account.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.05% to
close at ¬•9,301.32.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•108.25 level and was capped around the ¬•108.95 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•129.25 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7877 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8035. The pair weakened after it was reported that
Lawrence Summers, head of the U.S. National Economic Council, met with Chinese
officials in Beijing today.Speculation
mounted that Summers and the Chinese discussed the possibility of the Chinese
government permitting additional yuan gains. Data to be released in China
overnight include the Q4 Manpower survey.China‚Äôs trade surplus with the U.S. amounted to US$ 119 billion in the
first half of 2010.A People‚Äôs Bank of
China official published a piece stating the central bank will ‚Äúenhance the
fine-tuning of monetary policy.‚ÄĚPBoC
official Li Daokui reported ht is not concerned about the impact future
property price decline will have on the Chinese banking sector.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5345 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5490 level. European dealers drove sterling lower during
the European session and liquidity is expected to be choppy until
tomorrow.Bank of England‚Äôs Monetary
Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week and is likely
to keep its asset purchase target unchanged at ¬£200 billion.The central bank remains in a predicament
that finds it trying to deal simultaneously with elevated rates of inflation
and depressed levels of economic growth.Data to be released tonight include the BRC August retail sales monitor
followed by the BRC August shop price index tomorrow.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8390 level and was supported around the
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0115 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0180 level. Swiss National Bank reported its foreign
currency holdings fell to CHF 218.1 billion in August from CHF 219.5 billion in
July, partially reflecting gains in the franc.In June, the SNB reported it will intervene less in the markets by
selling fewer francs after its currency holdings quadrupled.The SNB has likely not officially intervened
since June.Data to be released in
Switzerland tomorrow include the August unemployment rate.Data released in Switzerland last week saw
August consumer price inflation up 0.0% m/m and 0.3% y/y.Also, Q2 gross domestic product was up 0.9%
q/q and 3.4% y/y while July retail sales were up 4.8% y/y.Swiss National Bank member Jordan last week
said the central bank is monitoring the Swiss franc ‚Äúvery closely‚ÄĚ and said
Switzerland‚Äôs monetary policy situation remains ‚Äúvery complex.‚ÄĚJordan also cited a ‚Äúsmall‚ÄĚ short-term risk
of deflation.Some traders believe SNB
may be forced to resume its franc-selling intervention to stop the euro‚Äôs sharp
decline on the cross.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3025 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5565 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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