European Market Update: European peripherals reflecting stress yet again (TTN)
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
European Market Update: European peripherals reflecting stress yet again
***Economic Data*** - (SZ) Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.6%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.8% v 3.7%e - (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: â‚¬240.7M v â‚¬500Me - (TU) Turkey July Industrial Production WDA M/M: 0.3% v 8.7%e; Y/Y: 8.9% v 10.2% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.0%e - (SW) Sweden Aug Budget Balance (SEK) 8.4B v 12.5B prior - (AS) Austria Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.0% prior - (DE) Denmark July Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v 1.2% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -22.1% v 23.0% prior - (CZ) Czech Q2 Current Account: -â‚¬1.2B v â‚¬737.9M prior - (NO) Norway July Industrial Production M/M: -2.9% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -7.8% v -4.4% prior - (NO) Norway July Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: +0.1% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 7.2% prior - (TT) Taiwan Aug Total Trade Balance: $2.3B v $2.2Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 26.6% v 25.0%e; Total Imports Y/Y: 28.0% v 28.5%e - (HK) Hong Kong Aug Foreign Currency Reserves: $261.4B v $260.7B prior - (GR) Greece Aug Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.4%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.5%e - (IC) Iceland Aug Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 2.4B v 4.6B prior - (SA) South Africa Aug SACCI Business Confidence: 87.6 v 84.3 prior
Fixed Income - (DE) Denmark sells DKK3.7B in 4.0% 2019 Bonds; Avg Yield 2.35% - (EU) ECB allots â‚¬153.7B in its main 7-day and allots â‚¬37.9B in its 35-day refi operation at fixed 1.0% - (SA) South Africa selss total ZAR2.1B in R203 and R207 bonds - Sold ZAR1.1B in R203 bonds; Clearing yield 7.70% - Sold ZAR1.0B in R207 bonds; Clearing yield 7.90% - (AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sells total â‚¬1.75B in 2019 and 2026 Bonds - Sells â‚¬1.1B in 4.35% 2019 RAGBs; avg yield 2.522% v 3.733% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.47x v 1.38x prior - Sells â‚¬650M in 4.85% 2026 RAGBs; avg yield 3.090% v 3.826% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.43x v 1.52x prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells HUF60B in 3-Month Bills v HUF50B target; Avg Yield 5.53% v 5.47% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.7x prior - (UK) DMO sells Â£800M in 0.75% Index-linked 2047 Gilts; avg yield 0.570% v 0.666% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.04x v 2.40x prior
Equities: - As of 5:15am ET (9:30 GMT) Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.9% at 2,728; DAX Index -0.6% at 6,115; CAC-40 Index -1.1% at 3,645 and FTSE 100 Index -0.8% at 5,395
- Banking sector declined today following a WSJ article which noted that European stress tests understated some major lenders' holdings of risky government debt. As expected, Barclays [BARC.UK] named Bob Diamond as new CEO who would succeed John Varley. Shares traded down 3.2% - In UK names, Greene King [GNK.UK] provided a trading update noting LFL sales within Greene King Retail are +4.4%, and LFL sales within Belhaven Retail are +3.3%. Company remained cautious on the economic outlook. Whitbread [WTB.UK] also provided a trading update noting a growth of 7.9% in LFL. In follow-up comments, the CEO said that the FY would be in line with expectations but expected lower growth rates in H2. Energy name Dragon Oil [DGO.UK] in its drilling update announced the completion and initial testing of the Dzheitune (Lam) 28/147 development well
Speakers: - BoJ Shirakawa reiterates the view at the post rate decision press conference that the BOJ was closely watching impact of yen's rise on Japanese economy. The BOJ chief also reiterate that Japan will not react to short-term movements in either forex or equities. The BOJ always considering various policy options and would act in a timely and appropriate way when deemed necessary. He explained that the BOJ would take the most appropriate action by examining the merits and drawbacks of various options but conceded that Monetary authorities could not control forex rates - Japan Fin Min Noda also reiterated prior gov't stance that Japan would take appropriate measures on fx when deemed appropriate . he again expressed concern about yen currency's impact on corporate profits. - Sweden's National Debt Office stated that it would unwind a SEK50B position established back in 2009 within one year. It noted that the SEK currency might further appreciate but believed the current currency level was 'normal'. In May of 2009, the government instructed the debt management office to buy up to SEK50B in exchange for euro as it believed the Swedish crown was undervalued. - ECB member Bini-Smaghi commented that a new crisis was risked due to poor coordination by governments and stressed that global policy focus is too short-term orientated. - German BGA Trade Association raised its 2010 Real Wholesale Forecast to 6.5% from 4.0% prior view. The Assoc also raised 2010 Non-wholesale forecast to 10.0% from 5% prior. It now forecasts Germany's 2010 GDP growth of +3% and range 2011 in a range between +1.25-1.5% - China govt advisor: Emerging economies were less reliant on US dollar and were de-pegging from the US economy
Currencies/Fixed Income: - All roads seemed to come back to the Euro in the session as numerous press articles weighed upon the currency's sentiment over the last 24 hours. The WSJ article that questioned the reliability of the recent European bank stress tests coupled with an FT article that the 10 largest German banks needed about â‚¬105B in fresh capital to comply with Basel III. Portugal Banks borrowing from ECB at record â‚¬49.1B, up 0.6% m/m. On the other side of the coin Greek July bank deposits declined to â‚¬212.3B v â‚¬216.5B m/m (7th consecutive decline). The EUR/USD tested 1.2750 while EUR/JPY probed the 107 handle before consolidating ahead of the NY morning - European peripheral spreads widen in session led by Greek/German 10-year Gov't Bond which widen to almost 940bps (higest May 7th). Other key areas reflected similar moves highlighted by the Spread between Portuguese/German 10-year Gov't Bond moving above 340bps (wider by almost 10bps_ and the spread between Spain/German 10-year Gov't Bond back above 170bps area. Dealers attributed the sentiment o PIMCO's Bosomworth, was commented that there was still a substantial risk that Greece could default - Japanese officials continued their barrage of verbal intervention after the BOJ maintained a steady policy earlier in Asia today. USD/JPY continued to probed the 15-year lows established last month at 83.57 but continued chatter that Japan's Post Office Kampo was 'defending' the level yet again.
In the Papers-Geopolitical: - Commenting on Greece, PIMCO's Bosomworth stated that he continues to see substantial risk that the country could default according to PIMCO's Bosomworth. He believes if the country is insolvent and could face problems if its borrowing costs remain high. In addition, he states that in the most optimistic scenario, the debt would rise to more than 140% of GDP. - The British Office of Fair Trade published its aggregates market study, noting that the aggregates sector is substantial, with a turnover in 2008 of Â£4.8bn. Aggregates is a sector with high barriers to entry, increasing concentration at the local level, and Government involvement in the form of a national system of control over outputs. The study will look at all of these factors to determine how they influence competitive conditions and whether the market delivers good value for money to tax payers and end consumers as the cost of aggregates flows through to the construction of essential infrastructure. - The Wall Street Journal reported that European Bank stress tests understated some of the banks' holdings of sovereign debt. According to WSJ analysis some banks excluded some sovereign bonds from their totals, and many lowered the totals to account for short positions they were holding. It should be noted that reportedly that CEBS faced heavy pressure from national regulators and politicians in Europe to format the stress tests in a way that would show a healthy banking system.
***Notes/Observations*** - Safe haven bid appear to return as September brings back full participation in the markets - Greek sovereign default concept re-surfaces - European Banks still face problems in regards to their capital ratios - Australia forms a new Gov't with Gillard back at the helm - Both Australia and Japanese central banks maintain steady interest rate policy but RBA noted that the outlook was uncertain
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia Aug Official Reserves: No est v $477.1Be - (RU) Russia Aug YTD Budget Level (RUB): No est v -538.8B prior - (RU) Russia July Trade Balance: $12.5Be v $12.5B prior- (BE) Belgium's Planning Bureau Updates Inflation Forecasts - (PO) Portugal July Industrial Sales M/M: % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 10.5% prior - 6:00 (GE) Germany July Factory Orders M/M: % v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 20.6%e - 7:00 (EU) ECB to drain â‚¬61.0B in 7-day Term Deposit Tender - 8:30 (CL) Chile Aug Trade Balance: $925.0M v $1.0B prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.8B prior; Total Imports: No est v $4.8B prior - 8:30 (CL) Chile Aug Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior - 11:00 (HU) Hungary Aug YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -997.5B prior - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $33B in 3-Year Notes - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Sept 5th: No est v -45 prior - 23:00 (CH) China Government Bond to Sell 1-Year Bonds
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.