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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 07/09/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
September 07, 2010
We wondered in yesterdayâ€™s report, if the Dollar was able
to survive after reaching critical levels at 1.2920 for the EURUSD, and 1.5490
for the GBPUSD. The answer to our wondering was â€śYes we canâ€ť. Although the price
did not reach far enough to break yesterdayâ€™s resistance or support, but it fell
heavily during the Asian session. Yesterdayâ€™s rise was halted accurately at the
resistance we specified 1.2920, and only 4 pips below it, confirming its massive
importance. Then, we dropped to 1.2786, before bouncing once again above 1.28.
With this drop, the Euro has broken 2 important trend lines on the hourly
charts: the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), and
then the falling trend line from Sep 1st top. This has shifted the short term
technical outlook to the negative territory, but the medium term gloomy outlook
is sleeping until we break 1.2777, and we wake her beauty up! That is why,
todayâ€™s support will be 1.2777, and if broken, we expect the current fall to
continue, targeting 1.2690 first, and then 1.2627. On the other hand, resistance
is at 1.2864, and if broken, the Euro will rise after the Asian session
breakdown, and will target 1.2943 & 1.3000.
1.2777: last weekâ€™s top, Aug 27th high, an obvious hourly support. The single
most important short term support without a shadow of a doubt.
obvious & attractive horizontal support on the hourly chart.
Aug 31st low.
â€˘ 1.2864: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
drop from yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.2943: the top of the rising trend channel on
the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.3000: psychological
The Pound dropped from
the very same area which stopped it on Sep 1st, the all important resistance
1.5480/90. It fell to break the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.5442,
and successfully and accurately reaching our suggested target 1.5349, stopping
only 5 pips below it. Today, we expect more of the same, and we expect a serious
break of the support at 1.5349, resulting in a continuation of the drop from the
massive 1.5490! if the price manages to do so, we will be expecting another
episode of â€śthe dropâ€ť series, a lot like yesterdayâ€™s. This drop will target
1.5262 at the very least, and at a later time 1.5151. On the other hand, the
most important resistance is still at 1.5480/90, but there is a short term
resistance â€śguardingâ€ť it, which is short term resistance 1.5433. if broken, the
Pound will reverse direction, and refuse our negative outlook, and will be on
the way to yet another (a third) test, of the all important 1.5480/90, and if we
pass by it, 1.5565 will be the target.
â€˘ 1.5262: Jul 5th high.
â€˘ 1.5151: the rising trend line
from Fridayâ€™s low on intraday charts.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.5490: the top of the
resistance area formed between Fibonacci 61.8% short term & Sep 1st
â€˘ 1.5565: the falling trend line from Aug 16th
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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