Wednesday September 8, 2010 - 03:41:04 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 08-Sep-2010 - 0338GMT
The US Equities fell over European debt concerns yesterday. The Dow (10340.69) was down 1.03% and the S&P 500 (1091.84) was down 1.15%. The Dow may move in a small range of 10250-500 in the next few days followed by an upmove towards 10700-50 in the coming weeks.
All Asians in the red today. The Nikkei (9044.39.62, down 1.97%) fell over stronger Yen and may see some more weakness towards 8950-9000, however, a weekly close below 9000 may pull it towards 8500 by the month end. The Shanghai (2681.69, down 0.62%) is continuing to retain its range of 2600 and 2700. In India, the Sensex (18645.06, up 0.43%) and the Nifty (5604.00, up 0.49%) gained following the strength in the markets globally. We may see the Sensex and the Nifty fall towards 17500 and 5400-300 in the coming weeks, though, the markets may test some patience before they see these levels.
Crude (73.69) bounced back from yesterday's low of 72.63 following an explosion in a Mexican oil refinery. However, the broader outlook is still bearish for a fall towards 71.00-70.00 with strong Resistance at 76.00-15 region.
Gold (1257.40) has risen breaking above its Resistance at 1250. Renewed concerns about the European banking sector triggered the rise in the price. A further rise towards 1275 is looking likley in the coming days. A weekly close above 1250 would be very bullish for a rise towards 1300 or even higher going forward. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.2690) is continuing to trade . A further dip towards the crucial and important Support at 1.2605 [50% retracement level of the rise from 1.1876 (Jun-10) to 1.3334 (Aug-10)] is looking likely today. Dollar-Yen (83.60) is retaining its overall downtrend and is now trading below 84. We might see the downmove continuing towards 83.00-82.80 in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (106.14) is keeping up its downside momentum and a strong break below the immediate Support at 106.00 might pull it further down towards 105.00-104.80 today. Resistance is seen at 107.40.
Dollar-Swiss is trading near 1.0100 and we continue to stay out of the market for an eventual dip towards 1.0050. Cable (1.5378) may see some upmove towards 1.5425-50 today. Aussie may see some upmove towards 0.9175-200 in the coming sessions today.
In Asia the Korean-Won is trading near 1175 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3465. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher yesterday at 46.84/85 and has chances of rising further up towards 46.95-47.00 while above the Support at 46.75.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y were down 2 bps to quote at 0.48% and 10Y yields were up 10 bps to quote at 2.68%.
13:00 GMT BoC Meeting
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 0.75%
...Actual 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Actual 4.50%...Previous 4.50%
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