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Wednesday September 8, 2010 - 10:22:14 GMT
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European Market Update: Peripheral situation continues to be the focus of market sentiment (TTN)

Wednesday, September 08, 2010 5:50:23 AM

 European Market Update: Peripheral situation continues to be the focus of market sentiment


***Economic Data***
- (GE) Germany July Current Account: €9.0B v €11.5Be; Trade Balance €13.5B v €13.0Be; Imports M/M: -2.2% v 0.1%e; Exports M/M: -1.5% v 0.0%e
- (FI) Finland Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 3.1%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.5%e
- (FR) Bank of France Business Sentiment: 101 v 101e
- (FR) France July Trade Balance: -€4.2B v -€4.1B
- (FR) France July Central Govt. Balance: -€93.1B v -€61.7B prior
- (UK) Aug Halifax Prices M/M: +0.2% v -0.5%e; 3M/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Q2 Final GDP Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: -1.1% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y:11.5 % v 12.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.8% prelim; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2% prelim
- (CZ) Czech Aug Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.7%e
- (SP) Spain July Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -1.6% v 3.1% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: 0.5% v 2.8%e
- (SW) Sweden Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.7%e
- (DE) Denmark July Current Account (DKK): 10.6B v 7.3Be; Trade Balance Ex-Shipping: 8.0B v 4.5Be
- (NE) Netherlands July Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.4%e; Industrial sales Y/Y: 11.9% v 18.9% prior
- (UK) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (UK) July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e
- (GR) Greece Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: -1.8% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -3.7% v -3.5%

Fixed income
- (EU) ECB allots $60M in 7-day USD liquidity operation at fixed 1.18%
- (GE) Germany sells additional €4.8B in 0.75% Sept 2012 Schatz; avg yield 0.58% v 0.73% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 1.6x prior
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total €1.04B versus €1.25B indicated in 2013 and 2021 bonds
- Sold €661M in Sept 2013 OTs; avg yield 4.086% v 3.597% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.4x prior
- Sold €378M in Apr 2021 OTs; avg yield 5.973% v 4.171% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.6x v 1.6x prior


- As of 5:35am ET (9:30 GMT) Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.7% at 2,708; DAX Index -0.7% at 6,074; CAC-40 Index -0.7% at 3,617 and FTSE 100 Index -0.7% at 5,368

- Swiss luxury brand Richemont [CIE.FR] reported a 37% increase in revenue in actual exchange rates and expected to report a significantly higher H1 profit. Company noted that it was too soon to draw conclusions about the sustainability of economic recovery. Strength of Swiss franc is expected to be negative for the cost of sales. Italian unit of Swisscom, Fastweb [FWB.IT] opened 33% higher after Swisscom [SCMN.SZ] announced that it would launch a takeover offer for company's minority shares at €18/shr in a deal valued at €256M. Fastweb will be delisted after the takeover. In
UK names, Vodafone [VOD.UK] opened almost flat after confirming the sale of 3.2% stake in China Mobile for £4.3B. Approximately 70% of the net proceeds of the sale will be returned to shareholders through a share buyback, with the remainder used to reduce company debt. This was deemed as positive by analysts in the industry who see this move as a reasonable step to clean the assets and refocus on its regional centers. The action was, however, already priced in.
- British Development [BDEV.UK] narrowed its loss but reported a slight decrease in revenues. Company noted that the outlook remained challenging but that cancellation rates remained low. There is expected to be a further shift in product mix, with houses likely to represent at least 65% of total volumes, resulting in a modest increase in average selling price.
- In M&A news, Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK] stepped up its defense against KNOC's 1,800p/shr bid and announced as expected the purchase of
Petro-Canada UK assets, a unit of Suncore, for £240M. Furthermore, the company cited the valuation of an independent expert putting the company's value at a price of 2,120p/shr or 18% higher than KNOC'offer. According to report, total daily production will have risen to around 70,000 boepd by year-end. Dana was supposed to announce its takeover defense two weeks ago as it reported H1 results but decided to delay the plan to acquire Suncor's North Sea assets in an attempt to frustrate KNOC and force it to raise the bid. Dana failed to convince its shareholders to demand KNOC to raise its hostile offer. The 8th of September was the deadline for the company to respond to KNOC. The announcement of the purchase clears KNOC of potential insider trading accusations as KNOC knew of the deal during the talks with the management. KNOC, who already has the support of 48% of shareholders, is now free to act as a corporate raider to buy Dana's share in order to achieve the 50% majority required. The markets deemed Dana's attempt futile and the shares barely moved at the open.

- ECB's Weber commented in a speech that he had no fears of a possible double-dip recession nor deflation but added one must resist temptation to declare crisis from being over. Weber cautioned that one cannot rule out setback in financial markets but did concede that the financial markets were calmer but uncertainty did prevail. The effects from the crisis would be felt for years. Economy had developed better than expected compared to forecasts made at beginning of 2010 and that the planned economic reforms would not hurt economy
- ECB Weber commented on the peripheral situation within the EMU and stated that its members continue to have good capital access to markets. He did note that peripheral States to endure higher refinancing costs but was not talking about default. EMU Peripheral States were on track with austerity measures but countries need to show long-term consolidation commitment
- Japan DPJ's Ozawa commented that there was limited room for BoJ policy to deal with the yen appreciation trend. As BoJ is independent, the govt should not instruct every move by the central bank. He commented that Japan might need to issue more bonds depending on situation.
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented in a newspaper interview that 2010 GDP growth above 3.5% was possible. He noted that monetary policy should react to inflationary- related threats but there should be no 'automatic' reactions. Foreign currencies denominated loans were a risk and supported measures to limit such types of loans.
- Thai Central Bank reiterated prior gov't views that strengthening in the baht currency is manageable and not harming the economy
- (RU) Russia's Dep Fin Min Pankin commented that Russia would be ready to issue ruble eurobond in November . the Issue size could be between $1-3B and the maturity of 5 yrs. He added that Russia 2010 domestic borrowing needs would be less than previously planned

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Peripheral stress continued to aid the overall risk aversion sentiment again in the early part of the session. Press article again contributed to the cause with dealers taking note that perhaps
Greece continued to withholding data on the real extent of its situation while the FT commented that the German banking weaknesses had come to light. The EUR maintains soft tome as EUR/CHF continued to hit fresh all-time lows at 1.2765 area and EUR/USD testing a critical hourly support at 1.2660. The JPY also continued to benefit in the current environment and USD/JPY tested fresh 15-year lows (yen highs) ahead of the European equity open at 83.35 level while EUR/JPY was back approaching two-month lows as it dipped below 106 handle. One top-tier US bank now admits to being a Euro bear after advising clients otherwise earlier this summer. ECB most hawkish member Weber seemed to tone down his views when he admitted that EU growth would likely be moderate couple with price stability. However, Weber tried to instill a bit of calm when he noted that Peripheral EMU members continued to have good capital access to markets (just ahead of a key Portuguese bond auction). Nonetheless the markets appeared to be in a consolidating mood ahead of the NY morning.
The GBP currency bucked the initial trend and was firmer against both the USD and Euro pairs aided by a better Halifax House price data and talk that Vodafone would repatriate the bulk of its £4B+ proceeds from its sale of China Mobile stake.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- French President Sarkozy made comments today regarding pension reform stating that the government will not compromise its position on setting the retirement age at 62 versus the current age of 60. He does add that pension reform is essential, and that those who start work earlier can retire earlier.
- In the Wall Street Journal, at the end of August, Asian central banks excluding
China had a total of $2.88 trillion in foreign exchange reserves against the prior month's total of $2.86 trillion. The article notes that the increase in reserves was driven by inflows and central bank interventions.
- The head of the European statistics agency Eurostat Radermacher stated that the agency is still waiting key documents from
Greece regarding financial transactions it used to conceal debt. He further said that it was the only country that lied after the agency requested EU member states to report the use of swap contracts in 2008.

- Risk Aversion sentiment continue to simmer
- Eurostats's Radermacher: Still awaiting key documents from Greece regarding financial transactions it used to conceal debt
- German Chancellor Merkel: Germany will not support prolonging rescue mechanisms
- Japan machine orders rise almost 9% and beat expectations; JPY continued to fir and Nikkei 225 losses another 2% in session
- Analyst Meredith Whitney: 80K wall street jobs to be lost
- Canada poised to raise interest rates again

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Aug YTD Budget Level (RUB): No est v -538.8B prior
- (RU) Russia July Trade Balance: $12.5Be v $12.5B prior
- (RU) Russia Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 3.1% prior
- (PO) Portugal July Trade Balance: v -€1.9B prior
- (PO) Portugal Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prelim
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Rep. to sell CZK7.0B in 2.8% 2013 Bonds
- 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN3.0B Fixed Rate Bonds
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB40B in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (GE) Germany sells additional €2.0B in Index Linked Notes
- 6:00 (GE) Germany July Industrial Production M/M: 1.0%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 12.5%e v 10.9% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 3rd: No est v 2.7% prior
- 7:00 (SA) South Africa July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.0%e v 8.8% prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC weekly chain store sales
- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes
- 8:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.3% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: No est v 0.6% prior
- 8:00 (RU) Russia to Sell up to RUB25B in OFZ Bonds
- 8:55 (US) Redbook retail sales
- 8:30 (CA) Canada July Building Permits M/M: -6.0%e v 6.5% prior
- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations to raise interest rates by 25bps to 1.00% from the current level of 0.75%
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prelim
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Vehicle Production: No est v 315.9K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 302.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 64.9K prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 55.5e v 54.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Vehicle Production: No est v 180.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 143.5K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 62.0K prior
- 10:00 UK Aug NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.9% prior
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 15:00 (US) July Consumer Credit: -$5.4Be v -$1.3B prior
- 16:30 API weekly energy inventory



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