***Economic data*** - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 3rd: -1.5% v 2.7% prior - (SA) South Africa July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.5% v 6.0%e - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Sept 4th: -0.4% w/w; +1.8% y/y - (HU) Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes: Voted 4-2-1 to maintain Base Rate at 5.25%. Two members sought rate hike; One member wanted rate cut - (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.9%e; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: -0.1% v 0.2%e - (RU) Russia July Trade Balance: $13.1B v $12.5Be - (CA) Canada July Building Permits M/M: % v -4.9%e v 6.5% prior - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Sep 4th: +3.0% y/y; MTD: -0.1% v Aug - (CA) Bank of Canada raises its Overnight Rate by 25bps to 1.00%; As Expected - (BE) Belgium Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2% prelim - (BR) Brazil Aug Vehicle Production: 329.1K v 315.9K prior; Vehicle Sales: 312.8K v 302.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: 65.4K v 64.9K prior - (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 65.9 v 55.5e - UK Aug NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.7% v 1.3% prior - (MX) Mexico Aug Vehicle Production: 205.7K v 180.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: 175.9K v 143.5K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: 66.9K v 62.0K prior ***Fixed income*** - (RU) Russia sold RUB19.2B v RUB40B target in OFZ Bonds; Avg yield 7.43% - (GE) Germany sold additional â‚¬2.0B in Index Linked Notes; avg yield 0.19%; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x - (CZ) Czech Republic sold CZK5.95B in 2.8% 2013 Bonds; avg yield 1.993% v 2.31% prior; bid-to-cover 3.3x v 2.6x prior
- Recurring sovereign debt worries were substantially alleviated by this morning's mildly better Portuguese bond auction. Although the results of this auction were hardly pretty, they were enough for global investors, who moved back into risk assets after 6:00amET, helping European markets recoup losses and sending US equity futures higher. Spot gold had been near all-time highs at $1,262/oz, although prices remain relatively elevated in mid morning trading. EUR/USD has popped up to 1.2750 or so, from the 1.2660 handle seen earlier in the session. Front-month crude is up slightly from opening levels, trading around $74.60. US Treasury prices are moderately lower with the 10-year note future giving back a little less than half a point pushing the yield above 2.65%.
- Two small tech bellwethers have adjusted guidance since yesterday's close. Last night, semi name Altera raised its revenue guidance for its Q3, to up in double digits from up in the high single digits. The company said that the telecom and wireless vertical is on track to be the fastest growing portion of the business, driven in large part by 3G wireless deployments. Competitor Silicon Labs cut its Q3 earnings and revenue guidance significantly, citing broad weakness in demand in consumer end markets. ALTR is around even in mid morning trading, while SLAB is down 8%. In earnings, Navistar beat earnings targets in its Q3 report, while revenue was a bit soft. On the conference call, Navistar's CEO said he expects orders in Q1 of 2011 to be lower y/y and Q2 orders to be higher y/y.
- In mergers news, Bristol Myers announced that it would acquire biopharma name ZymoGenetics for $9.75 a share, in a deal valued at $735M. ZymoGenetics strengthens BMY's diversified Hepatitis C portfolio. The bidding for Canada's Potash Corp may heat up shortly. The firm has once again said BHP's offer undervalues the firm, and also warned that third-party bidders are expressing interest. There were reports overnight that Sinochem could unite with CNOOC to bid for the firm, with chatter of an offer worth around $185/shr making the rounds. And the interest in potash is spreading, with the Russian press writing that Rio Tinto may be looking to take a position in Russia's Uralkali, which is another possible acquisition target in the potash sector.
- In currency trading, EUR/CHF moved over 100 pips off all-time lows around 1.2763 to approach 1.29 handle New York trading. The Bank of Canada continued with its tightening path, raising its overnight rate by another 25bps to 1.00%. This was the third rate hike by the BoC since June. It did caution that any future rate hike would need to be "carefully considered." USD/CAD moved off its session highs of 1.0490 ahead of the rate decision to test below 1.0390.
***Looking Ahead*** - (US) Fed's Beige Book - (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening - (US) July Consumer Credit: -$4.5Be v -$1.3B prior - API weekly energy inventory
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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