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Thursday April 7, 2005 - 12:23:07 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day- Evening - 07-04-05 ....1202 GMT


Euro @ 1.2919/22....The Long and Short of it
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.2927-39 / 1.2968-83 / 1.3017
S: 1.2886-66 / 1.2842-30 / 1.2800
From A point of view, the Euro is still in an uptrend (its trading above its 200-day MA at 1.2777 and above a Trendline Support coming up from Mar-02). From ANOTHER point of view, the Euro is in a downtrend, as it is trading below some important nearer term Resistances. In short, its a battle between the multi-year and multi-week time frames. Will the Euro eventually fall below 1.2777?

We think it might, but it could take another week or two for it to happen. For today, the Euro has fallen back after testing Resistance at 1.2940 and could thus dip a bit more towards 1.2865, which might rohold.


$-Yen @ 108.21/5....Quiet for now
-------------------------------------------
R: 108.36-48 / 108.89 / 109.47-59
S: 107.95-89 / 107.66 / 107.26-25
A Resistance at 108.81-92 has been established over the last 3 days. This may work to push the Dollar down a bit towards 107.90. A consolidation between 109.00-107.50 would be good for a fresh upmove towards 110+ later in the month.

An immediate climb past 109.00 would find Resistance at 109.24. In case it breaks through that also, then 110 may be seen without 108 being seen first. That said, we see slightly greater chances of 108 before 110 at the moment.


Euro-Yen @ 139.80/5....Indecisive
---------------------------------------------
R: 140.04-16 / 140.54 / 140.89
S: 139.55-40 / 139.21-139.01 / 138.90-89
The Cross has made a pretty weak attempt to move up to 140.30 so far today. It currently looks like its dipping to 139.50. If so, the Cross might then vacillate between 139.50-90 for a while before either climbing further towards 140.30 or falling towards 139.20




$-Swiss @ 1.1992/7...Support at 1.1966-50
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2049-71 / 1.2084-1.2100 / 1.2147
S: 1.1980-66 / 1.1951 / 1.1920
There's been an intra-day dip to 1.1986 so far today. A further dip towards 1.1966-50 cannot be ruled out. These are important Supports which need to hold for immediate confidence in the Dollar's strength to remain intact.

In case these Supports break, a further fall towards 1.1920 may be seen, opening up chances of 1.1850 also. That might not be very good for the Dollar over a 1-2 week timeframe.

If the 1.1966-50 Support holds (they might), a rally back up to 1.2025-50 may be seen.

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.1966, SL 1.1936, TP 1.2036


Cable @ 1.8791/6.....Very ranged
-----------------------------------
R: 1.8797 / 1.8853-63 / 1.8898-1.8924
S: 1.8769-57 / 1.8718-07 / 1.8675
The Cable made a feeble attempt to climb above 1.8853 but has fallen back. This suggests that it is indeed consolidative between 1.8700-8925 at the moment and is likely to remain so far another few more days. Great for Range Traders.




Happy Trading!

 

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