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Thursday September 9, 2010 - 03:49:23 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 09-Sep-2010 - 0347GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities gained over successful auctions of Portugal debt, easing European worries yesterday. The Dow (10387.01) was up 0.45% and the S&P 500 (1098.87) was up 0.64%. The Dow may move in a small range of 10250-500 in the next few days followed by an upmove towards 10700-50 in the coming weeks.

The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (9095.52, up 0.79%) was up following the gains in global equities yesterday and may see some upmove towards 9250-300 while above 8950-9000. The Shanghai (2686.87, down 0.31%) is unable to break above the range of 2600-700. In India, the Sensex (18666.71, up 0.12%) and the Nifty (5607.85, up 0.07%) ended flat after recovering most of the opening losses. The Sensex has moved above the important Resistance of 18500-600 and we will need to see whether it is able to register a weekly close above these levels today.

COMMODITIES
Crude (74.78) has risen from yesterday's low of 73.37. The weaker dollar and a rise in the equity markets supported the price rise yesterday. Technically, a wedge formation is seen on the daily candles which still keeps the threat of the current downmove continuing further. A downside breakout of this wedge might pull it down towards 70 or even lower. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1254.40) has come off from yesterday's high of 1263.20. However, it is continuing to trade above 1250 and is keeping up the overall bullish sentiment intact. Important to note is that significant Resistnace is seen at 1255 on the Weekly line graph. A weekly close above this Resistance might be very bullish for a rise towards 1275-80 initially and then towards 1300-25. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldma.shtml#ma


CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.2729) has risen above 1.2700. However, the Resistance in 1.2750-75 region is continuing to hold and is retaining the downside pressure. The 100-DMA (currently at 1.2660) is the Support seen on the downside. Dollar-Yen (83.78) has come off from yesterday's high of 84.04 and is keeping up the overall downtrend intact. 82.85 is the next significant Support level seen which can be tested in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (106.65) failed to see a strong break above 107 and has come off from the high of 107.12. With Resistance in 107.00-25 region, the overall downtrend is intact.

Dollar-Swiss (1.0116) touched a low of 1.0060 yesterday and is currently trading higher. We see 50-50 chances of the pair testing 1.0050 over today and tomorrow, before a rally towards 1.0300-50 in the coming days. Cable (1.5464) may move in a range of 1.5450-550 today. Aussie (0.9212) may see some dip towards 0.9150, while below 0.9240 today.

The Asian Currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1167 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3424. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower yesterday at 46.63/64 and might fall further towards 46.55-50 today. Important Support is seen in 46.30-25 region.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were up 3 bps to quote at 0.51% and 10Y yields were down 4 bps to quote at 2.64%.

DATA TODAY
11:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

08:30 GMT UK Aug Trade Balance
...Expected $ -7.5 Bln...Previous $ -7.4 Bln

12:30 GMT US Aug Trade Balance
...Expected $ -47.4 Bln...Previous $ -49.9 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustrbal.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
13:00 GMT BoC Meeting
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 0.75%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/caboc.shtml

 

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