The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2665
level and was capped around the $1.2740 level.Many European Central Bank officials were on the tape today.ECB member Stark reiterated some German banks
require more capital and there is speculation some eurozone banks will struggle
to raise additional capital.German
authorities are speculating Germanyâ€™s ten largest banks may require about â‚¬105
billion in additional capitalization.ECB
member Liikanen said global current account imbalances remain while ECBâ€™s
Mersch said stricter bank capital rules will benefit the eurozone.Liikanen added inflation expectations are
consistent with the ECBâ€™s target.Mersch
also said the ECB will next deliberate the ECBâ€™s emergency policy measures in
December.The European Central Bankâ€™s
monthly bulletin reported economic growth momentum is â€śmoderating somewhatâ€ť and
said inflation risks are â€śslightly tiled to the upside.â€ťThe ECB also confirmed emergency bank lending
will extend into 2011.Greek finance
minister Papaconstantinou reported the Greek economy will shrink less than 4%
in 2010.Data released in Germany today
saw August consumer price inflation up 0.0% m/m and 1.0% y/y with the
harmonized measure up the same amounts.Also,
French Q2 non-farm payrolls were up 0.2% q/q.In U.S. news, data released
today saw the July trade balance narrow to â€“US$ 42.8 billion from the revised
prior reading of â€“US$ 49.8 billion.Also, weekly initial jobless claims came in less-than-expected at
451,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 4.478 million.The U.S. labour market remains unable to gain
much traction.President Obama yesterday
said he does not support tax breaks for wealthier U.S. taxpayers.Traders are still digesting yesterdayâ€™s Fed Beige
Book. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ83.60
level and was capped around the ÂĄ84.00 figure.Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa defended the central bankâ€™s
self-imposed limit on Japanese government bond purchases, citing â€śadverse
effectsâ€ť on economic growth.DPJ
officials today again called on the central bank to purchase more JGBs on top
of the ÂĄ1.8 trillion in bonds it purchases every month.Shirakawa reiterated there are increasing
downside risks to the Japanese economy.Some
traders are still anticipating yen-selling intervention from Japanese monetary
authorities.Finance minister Noda
stepped up the verbal rhetoric today about, saying authorities â€śare conducting
various simulationsâ€ť to arrest the yenâ€™s strength and pledged to take â€śdecisive
stepsâ€ť in the exchange rate market when necessary.Noda also said the government is closely
monitoring Chinaâ€™s decision to increase its purchases of Japanese debt.Data released in Japan overnight saw the Q3
BSI large all-industry index improve while the Q3 large manufacturing index also
improved.Also, August consumer
confidence waned to 42.5 and August machine tool orders were up 170% y/y.Q2 GDP data will be released tonight along
with the August corporate goods price index.The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.82% to close at ÂĄ9,098.39. U.S.
dollar bids are cited around the ÂĄ84.60 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested
bids around the ÂĄ105.95 level and was capped around the ÂĄ106.95 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ128.65 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ82.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7837 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7912. U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner called on
China to allow the yuan to appreciate more quickly.Peopleâ€™s Bank of China member Xia Bin warned
economic growth will slow and said Chinaâ€™s 2010 loan policy should not
change.PBoC Governor Zhou warned zero
per cent interest rates may discourage banks from lending.PBoCâ€™s Li said the central bank needs to
better manage inflation expectations.Chinese
economic data will be released on Saturday instead of Monday and this has
created rumours that PBoC could raise rates on or before Monday.There is speculation inflation may have
increased to 3.5%.
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5375 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5475 level. As expected, Bank of Englandâ€™s Monetary Policy
Committee kept its benchmark Bank rate unchanged at 0.50% today and kept its
asset purchase target unchanged at ÂŁ200 billion. There is fresh speculation BoE
may be forced to embark upon a new round of bond purchases following the recent
pullback in housing, manufacturing, construction, and services.Some BoE-watchers are speculating the new stimulus
could emerge in February.Deputy Prime
Minister spoke today and sterling came off on his remarks that the U.K.
economic recovery will be â€śchoppy and uneven.â€ť Data released in the U.K. today
saw the July total trade balance worsen to -ÂŁ4.916 billion.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115
level.The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ÂŁ0.8260 level and was supported around the
franc depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0165 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0100 figure. Data released in Switzerland this week saw the
August unemployment rate remain steady at 3.6%.August producer and import prices will be released on 13 August.This week, Swiss National Bank reported its
foreign currency holdings fell to CHF 218.1 billion in August from CHF 219.5
billion in July, partially reflecting gains in the franc.In June, the SNB reported it will intervene
less in the markets by selling fewer francs after its currency holdings
quadrupled.The SNB has likely not
officially intervened since June.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The
euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers
around the CHF 1.2920 level while the
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around
the CHF 1.5580 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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