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Thursday September 9, 2010 - 13:30:59 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 September 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2665 level and was capped around the $1.2740 level.  Many European Central Bank officials were on the tape today.  ECB member Stark reiterated some German banks require more capital and there is speculation some eurozone banks will struggle to raise additional capital.  German authorities are speculating Germany’s ten largest banks may require about €105 billion in additional capitalization.  ECB member Liikanen said global current account imbalances remain while ECB’s Mersch said stricter bank capital rules will benefit the eurozone.  Liikanen added inflation expectations are consistent with the ECB’s target.  Mersch also said the ECB will next deliberate the ECB’s emergency policy measures in December.  The European Central Bank’s monthly bulletin reported economic growth momentum is “moderating somewhat” and said inflation risks are “slightly tiled to the upside.”  The ECB also confirmed emergency bank lending will extend into 2011.  Greek finance minister Papaconstantinou reported the Greek economy will shrink less than 4% in 2010.  Data released in Germany today saw August consumer price inflation up 0.0% m/m and 1.0% y/y with the harmonized measure up the same amounts.  Also, French Q2 non-farm payrolls were up 0.2% q/q.  In U.S. news, data released today saw the July trade balance narrow to –US$ 42.8 billion from the revised prior reading of –US$ 49.8 billion.  Also, weekly initial jobless claims came in less-than-expected at 451,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 4.478 million.  The U.S. labour market remains unable to gain much traction.  President Obama yesterday said he does not support tax breaks for wealthier U.S. taxpayers.  Traders are still digesting yesterday’s Fed Beige Book. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level. 




¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥83.60 level and was capped around the ¥84.00 figure.  Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa defended the central bank’s self-imposed limit on Japanese government bond purchases, citing “adverse effects” on economic growth.  DPJ officials today again called on the central bank to purchase more JGBs on top of the ¥1.8 trillion in bonds it purchases every month.  Shirakawa reiterated there are increasing downside risks to the Japanese economy.  Some traders are still anticipating yen-selling intervention from Japanese monetary authorities.  Finance minister Noda stepped up the verbal rhetoric today about, saying authorities “are conducting various simulations” to arrest the yen’s strength and pledged to take “decisive steps” in the exchange rate market when necessary.  Noda also said the government is closely monitoring China’s decision to increase its purchases of Japanese debt.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the Q3 BSI large all-industry index improve while the Q3 large manufacturing index also improved.  Also, August consumer confidence waned to 42.5 and August machine tool orders were up 170% y/y.  Q2 GDP data will be released tonight along with the August corporate goods price index.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.82% to close at ¥9,098.39. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥84.60 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥105.95 level and was capped around the ¥106.95 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥128.65 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7837 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7912.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner called on China to allow the yuan to appreciate more quickly.  People’s Bank of China member Xia Bin warned economic growth will slow and said China’s 2010 loan policy should not change.  PBoC Governor Zhou warned zero per cent interest rates may discourage banks from lending.  PBoC’s Li said the central bank needs to better manage inflation expectations.  Chinese economic data will be released on Saturday instead of Monday and this has created rumours that PBoC could raise rates on or before Monday.  There is speculation inflation may have increased to 3.5%.



The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5375 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5475 level.  As expected, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark Bank rate unchanged at 0.50% today and kept its asset purchase target unchanged at £200 billion. There is fresh speculation BoE may be forced to embark upon a new round of bond purchases following the recent pullback in housing, manufacturing, construction, and services.  Some BoE-watchers are speculating the new stimulus could emerge in February.  Deputy Prime Minister spoke today and sterling came off on his remarks that the U.K. economic recovery will be “choppy and uneven.” Data released in the U.K. today saw the July total trade balance worsen to -£4.916 billion.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8260 level and was supported around the £0.8210 level.


The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0165 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0100 figure.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw the August unemployment rate remain steady at 3.6%.  August producer and import prices will be released on 13 August.  This week, Swiss National Bank reported its foreign currency holdings fell to CHF 218.1 billion in August from CHF 219.5 billion in July, partially reflecting gains in the franc.  In June, the SNB reported it will intervene less in the markets by selling fewer francs after its currency holdings quadrupled.  The SNB has likely not officially intervened since June.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.2920 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5580 level.


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