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European Market Update: Bond yields trying to build a base (TTN)

Friday, September 10, 2010 5:52:59 AM

 European Market Update: Bond yields trying to build a base


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India July Industrial Production Y/Y: 13.8% v 7.8%e

- (FI) Finland July Industrial Production M/M: -3.3% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 9.2% v 14.5% prior
- (FR) France July Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.7% ; Y/Y: 5.5% v 4.4%e
- (FR) France July Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Aug Consumer Prices M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.0%e
- (AS) Austria WIFO Institute: GDP 2Q: 1.2% v 0.9% prelim est
- (SP) Spain Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (SP) Spain Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (SP) Spain Aug CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (DE) Denmark Aug CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Denmark Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y:2.3% v 2.0%e
- (SW) Sweden July Industrial Production M/M:2.9 % v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 14.4% v 10.4%e
- (SW) Sweden July Industrial Orders M/M: 5.6% v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: 12.3% v 15.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (NO) Norway Aug CPI Underlying M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (NO) Norway Aug Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 12.9% v 18.1% prior
- (IT) Italy July Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 7.0%e; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.7%e
- (UK) Aug PPI Input M/M: -0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.9%e
- (UK) Aug PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.8%e
- (UK) Aug PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (RU) Russia Aug YTD Budget Level (RUB): -650.0B v -538.8B prior
- (IT) Italy Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1%e
- (IT) Italy Q2 Private Consumption: 0.0% v 0.1%e prior; Government Spending: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Total investments: 1.3% v 0.7%e; Exports: 3.3% v 3.0%e; Imports: 0.8% v 1.8%e
- (PO) Portugal Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8% prior
- (PO) Portugal Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: .9% v 1.9% prior
- (GR) Greece Jun Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.9%e

Fixed Income
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €10.5B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €3.5B 3-Month T-Bills, avg yield 0.683% v 0.836% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.63x v 3.38x prior
- Sold €7B 12-Month T-Bills, avg yield 1.428% v 1.374% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.90x v 2.02x prior


- As of 5:30am ET (9:30 GMT) Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.3% at 2,773; DAX Index -0.4% at 6,196; CAC-40 Index -0.3% at 3,710 and FTSE 100 Index -0.1% at 5,487

- German banking group Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] is expected to announce on Monday that it will issue €8-9B in order to strengthen the capital ratios ahead of Basel III decisions, which may require a Tier-1 ratio of 7% from its current 4%. Press reported that some of the funds or €4.5-5B would be used to raise its 29.9% stake in Deutsche Postbank and the rest will be used to pump up the ratios. Bank's stressed tier-1 ratio is at 9.7%. Analysts expect a surge in capital raising from other EU banks before the G20 meeting in November when the Basel III decisions will be approved. The news pulled European stocks and financial peers such as Commerzbank down as renewed concerns over the EU banks financial health arose. Deutsche Bank was down almost 5% at the open.
- As expected and speculated, Nokia [NOK1V.FH] appointed Stephen Ellop as CEO as of September replacing Kallasvuo. Ellop currently heads the Microsoft business division. Investors had become increasingly agitated over the decline of the share price and the failure of the company to come up with a smartphone rivaling Apple and Google. They had called for an executive with a US experience to correct the loss of US market share. Kallasvuo himself had urged the board to take a decision and end rumors about his exit as uncertainty was further damaging company's shares. Nokia opened up by 5.8% after the announcement.
- In UK names, BP [BP.UK] announced that it would delay its third quarter report by a week and publish results on Nov 2nd. A spokesman for BP stated that the delay is due to added complexities in the accounts due to the Gulf of Mexico spill and is not related to discovery of new liabilities. British pub chain JD Wetherspoon [JWD.UK] reported its preliminary figures for the fiscal year. Operating profit, revenues and like-for-like sales had all increased. Company was optimistic in its performance for the remaining of the year. Shares however opened down by less than 1% following European stocks down trend as caution returned in the markets.

- Dubai World stated that 99% of lenders have agreed to debt plan and expected to complete restructuring in coming weeks
- Treasury Sec Geithner is expected to testify at a US House hearing on Sept 16th
- Japan PM Kan reiterated the view that Japan would take 'decisive' steps on JPY currency but added that any joint currency intervention with G7 members was difficult.
- Japan Trade Min Naoshima commented that both the G8 and G20 leaders should send a message on FX . He added that Japan also needed to send 'clear' message that it would curb the current JPY appreciation trend
- Japan Econ Min Arai added to the vocal intervention and stated that the JPY currency rise was significantly hurting Japan's exports. He stressed that the Gov't to tackle yen appreciation with the BoJ
- Japan Cabinet Office monthly report maintained its economic assessment unchanged
- Greece Finance Ministry released some budget information. The Aug YTD budget deficit was down 32.2% y/y but below its planned target reduction of 39.5% target. The YTD revenue portion was up 3.3% y/y and again below the planned target of a 13.7% rise. The YTD expenditures were lower by 7.7% y/y and missing it planned target of -5.5%.
- IEA Monthly report tweaked its 2010 and 2011 oil demand forecasts. The IEA now saw 2010 global oil demand at 86.6M bpd and at 87.9M bpd in 2011. The oil demand growth for 2010 seen at 1.89M bpd (up 40Kbpd) and its 2011 Oil demand growth at 1.27M bps (down 50K bpd)
- Czech Fin Min: 2011 Gross Borrowing needs will be in the range of CZK250-270B v CZK306B forecasted back in Dec 2009

Currencies/Fixed Income:
The currency market painted a clouded cross-current price action into the weekend. The USD was mixed against the major pairs. The CHF was the weakest link as USD/CHF moved firmly above the 1.0230 level after failing to move below parity on Thursday ( low was 1.0060). EUR/CHF cross surged back above the 1.30 handle after testing all-time lows of 1.2763 earlier in the week. The JPY tried to emulate the Swissy move as Japanese officials continued to up the rhetoric on its appreciation trend. With the BOJ and Gov't monthly report citing specific concerns about its impact. Nonetheless, the USD/JPY was little changes and remained below the 84 handle and within striking distance of fresh 15-year lows below the 83.31 level. PM Kan again stated the obvious that any potential joint intervention would be 'difficult'.
EUR/USD entering the NY morning around 1.2735 just off its best level by 15 pips.
China's trade surplus again in excess of $20B could flare up renewed friction with the US over claims that the CNY currency was undervalued. The better import portion of the Chinese data provided the catalyst for renewed rate hike rumors by the PBoC (the last rate move was back in Dec 2008 when it cut key deposit and lending rates). Dealers noted that perhaps US interest yields showing signs of possible basing action and were moving higher.Far east data highlighted the diminishing risk of any double-dip recession after Japanese GDP revision and China import portion of the trade data. European Peripheral tone steady after improving following the Irish auction on Thursday.

In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- In German press, it was reported that nuclear plant extension plans need to be approved by Germany's Upper House (Bundesrat). Even though the CDU coalition government lacks a majority in the Upper House, as noted earlier this week, Chancellor Merkel stated that she was confident that nuclear extension can be accomplished without Upper House approval.
- In the Independent, the S&P is noted to have concerns over the possible rise in repossessions in the UK. The financial services company believes repossessions in the British housing market could rise due to the government's austerity measures and unemployment.
- The Independent commented on European capital rules stating that under the new Basel III capital rules, banks in Europe may be required to have a tier 1 ratio of at least 7%. The article goes on to state that banks in Britain already have capital ratios above 7%. Regulators in the US and Switzerland may have been seeking higher minimum capital ratios for banks, while officials in Germany were seeking less strict capital levels.
- According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, the SEC is to probe firms which collect fees for placing investor's money into hedge funds. The probe will focus on whether these types of companies have conducted proper oversight of client assets, and are dealing with possible conflicts of interest. The investigation could also involve alternative-investment advisers who deal with private equity and pension fund advisers. The probe is seen as one the broadest the hedge fund industry ever by the SEC.

- China posted its third consecutive monthly trade surplus in excess of $20B (despite the surge in its imports). China to bring forward inflation data from Monday to Saturday sparking an interest rate hike speculation
- Former BOE member Buiter argues that the Fed should consider implementing a negative interest rate policy - WSJ
- Deutsche bank lines up pre-Basel rights issue
- FT: ECB's Trichet reiterates calls for tougher rules against countries breaking fiscal rules.
- Greece YTD budget data improving but far short of 'lofty' annual targets
- Oil prices higher in electronic trade due to combination of a pipeline leak and latest DOE inventory data
- Bond yields trying to build a base

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Q2 GDP Q/Q: No est v 5.2% prelim
- (PO) Portugal July Construction Works Index: No est v 76.3 prior
- (PE) Peru July Trade Balance:No est v $826.2M prior
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland July Industrial Production: No est v 1.3% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Aug Net Change in Employment: 17.8Ke v -9.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.0% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI: No est v 0.2% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland July Current Account (EUR): No est v -1.0B prior; Trade Balance: No est v -287M prior
- 8:00 (IC) Iceland Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) July Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Gross Fixed Investment: No est v 6.20% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Trade Balance: No est v $133.0M prior



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