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Friday September 10, 2010 - 19:03:13 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 September 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2745 level and was supported around the $1.2645 level.  The common currency moved to intraday highs during the North American session but finished the week on the down side.  Today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the $1.5145 – $1.1880 range.  Data released in the U.S. today saw July wholesale inventories climb 1.3%, up from the upwardly-revised prior reading of 0.3%.  Former Fed Chairman Volcker said the U.S. economy may require three years to return to its peak performance.  St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned the U.S. economy will decelerate in the second half of this year and “pick up in 2011, probably back to trend growth, or even better.” Bullard also cited the current “rough patch” in the economy as not unusual for an economic recovery and called on the Obama administration to clarify its economic and financial policies.  The Obama administration this week indicated it may let tax breaks instituted by President Bush expire for wealthy U.S. taxpayers.  In eurozone news, data released in France overnight saw July manufacturing production up 1.4% m/m and 5.5% y/y while July industrial production was up 0.9% m/m and 5.5% y/y.  Traders are still focusing on sovereign credit jitters in the eurozone that reignited this week, sparking speculation the common currency could depreciate further.  European Central Bank member Bini-Smaghi warned several developed countries globally face credit crunches.  The ECB this week reiterated it will likely keep its accommodative monetary policy in place through early 2011 before determining when to unwind some of its emergency stimulus measures.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥84.35 level and was supported around the ¥83.75 level.  Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa testified that the yen’s gains have been large and called for more international discussion about exchange rates. Many traders believe Japan will press the Group of Eight and Group of Twenty to highlight currency misalignments at their upcoming meetings in Washington, D.C.  The Cabinet Office today released a report that cited escalating risks to the economic recovery on account of the yen’s ongoing appreciation.  The Kan government today unveiled a new ¥915 billion stimulus package but many dealers believe the stimulus will be too small to have much of an economic impact.  The government also verbally intervened against the yen’s advances, arguing they could disrupt the Japanese economy further.  Prime Minister Kan remains locked in a heated leadership election with Ichiro Ozawa for the Democratic Party of Japan.  Many dealers remain skeptical that Japan will conduct unilateral yen-selling intervention and few believe Japan will be able to obtain international support at this time for such an operation.  Data released in Japan today saw Q2 gross domestic product print at an annualized 1.5% and the GDP deflator came in at -1.7%.  Also, the August domestic corporate goods price index came in better-than-expected at +0.0% m/m and 0.0% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.55% to close at ¥9,239.17.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥84.60 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥107.35 level and was supported around the ¥106.25 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥130.00 figure while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥82.85 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7696 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7837.  Data released in China overnight saw August property prices decrease while the August trade balance fell to +US$ 20.03 billion.  China accelerated the release of additional economic data to tomorrow from Monday, fueling speculation People’s Bank of China may announce additional monetary tightening measures as early as Monday.  Tomorrow’s data include August producer prices, August consumer prices, August retail sales, and August industrial production.  There is speculation inflation may have increased to 3.5%.



The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5345 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5465 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw August PPI input off 0.5% m/m and up 8.1% y/y while August output was up 0.0% m/m and 4.7% y/y with core output up 0.1% m/m and 4.6% y/y.  As expected, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee this week kept its benchmark Bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target unchanged at £200 billion. There is fresh speculation BoE may be forced to embark upon a new round of bond purchases following the recent pullback in housing, manufacturing, construction, and services.  Some BoE-watchers are speculating the new stimulus could emerge in February.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8285 level and was supported around the £0.8210 level.



The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0275 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0135 level.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw the August unemployment rate remain steady at 3.6%.  August producer and import prices will be released on 13 August.  This week, Swiss National Bank reported its foreign currency holdings fell to CHF 218.1 billion in August from CHF 219.5 billion in July, partially reflecting gains in the franc.  In June, the SNB reported it will intervene less in the markets by selling fewer francs after its currency holdings quadrupled.  The SNB has likely not officially intervened since June.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3070 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5610 level.


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