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Saturday September 11, 2010 - 04:30:37 GMT
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Aussie and Japanese Yen to be Main Focus Next Week

The Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen are likely to be the main focus next week as both are expected to be big movers if the global equity markets expand to the upside as expected.

 

Money continued to flow out of T-Bonds and Gold which may be an indication that investors are gearing up for a stock market rally next week.

 

Investors should be focusing on the movement of cash at this time. The money leaving the Treasury and Gold markets has to be put to work at some time and the stock market seems to be the most likely place to invest. The Australian Dollar could see more upside as traders are likely to chase higher yielding assets. The Japanese Yen could feel pressure from a renewal of the carry trade if equity markets begin to soar.

 

The AUD USD traded higher on Friday but under yesterday’s high at .9276 in reaction to Chinese trade data released overnight that showed China’s trade surplus narrowed as imports accelerated in August.

 

We already knew that China has surpassed Japan and the U.S. to become Australia’s trading partner, but this report could be laying the foundation for an even sharper rise in the Aussie if the global economy begins to heat up. At this time, the Australian Dollar seems to be well positioned to gain from greater demand for higher risk assets.

 

Technically, the AUD USD is in an uptrend after crossing the last swing top at .9221 on Thursday. This price level is likely to become new support since often old tops become new bottoms. In addition, an uptrending Gann angle at .9274 on Monday is helping to guide this currency pair higher.

 

The pace of the current rally may begin to slow down as this market approaches a series of tops at .9323, .9337, .9364 and .9387. Once this area is cleared, we could begin to see an acceleration to the upside. The big number to overtake will be the November 2009 top at .9405. If this price gets taken out, then look for renewed talk of the Australian Dollar reaching par with the U.S. Dollar.

 

The USD JPY closed up on Friday, but was still lower for the week. Today’s action confirmed Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom, but all this indicates is the possibility of a short-covering rally back to 84.62 to 84.93. What I really wanted to see was a close over last week’s settlement at 84.28.

 

This morning, the Dollar/Yen regained 84.28 for a short-period of time, trading up to 84.37 before buying dried up. This indicates that the rally was most likely short-covering rather than fresh longs because of the way the market drifted lower throughout the rest of the day and into the close.

 

Stronger demand for higher risk assets as well as the threat of an intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan was the catalyst behind this week’s bottoming action.

 

The daily reversal bottom pattern usually lasts 2 to 3 days and ends inside of a short-term retracement zone, but they have been known to start even larger rallies. This is possible with the current set-up. Money has been shifting out of Gold and T-Bonds and big investors may be gearing up to invest these funds in the equity markets.

 

If this occurs, then look for a revival in the carry trade. This occurs when investors, sensing the start of an increase in appetite for risk, borrow in Japan, convert the Yen to Dollars and buy riskier assets.

 

The set-up is there, the market just needs some muscle behind it to follow-through. This may occur next week when many large traders and institutions are expected to return to the trading arena after the Jewish holiday and the extended end-of-summer vacations.

 

Don’t be surprised by an intervention in the Japanese Yen over the week-end. This could be the catalyst which drives up demand for risky assets next week.

 

 

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